Perenti Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Perenti Limited (ASX:PRN) just released its latest half-year report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at AU$1.7b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 42%, coming in at just AU$0.059 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Perenti after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Perenti

Following last week's earnings report, Perenti's seven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be AU$3.51b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 98% to AU$0.18. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$3.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.17 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of AU$1.43, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Perenti analyst has a price target of AU$1.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$1.30. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Perenti's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Perenti's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Perenti is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Perenti following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Perenti going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Perenti that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.