Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX:PLS) Annual Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX:PLS) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to AU$2.91 in the past week. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at AU$1.3b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Pilbara Minerals

After the latest results, the consensus from Pilbara Minerals' 18 analysts is for revenues of AU$1.15b in 2025, which would reflect a chunky 8.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 40% to AU$0.051 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$1.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.062 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the AU$3.28 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Pilbara Minerals at AU$4.59 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$2.20. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 57% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Pilbara Minerals is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Pilbara Minerals. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$3.28, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Pilbara Minerals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Pilbara Minerals (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.