Shareholders of Mount Gibson Iron (ASX:MGX) Must Be Delighted With Their 447% Total Return

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 25, 2021
ASX:MGX
Source: Shutterstock

Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. Just think about the savvy investors who held Mount Gibson Iron Limited (ASX:MGX) shares for the last five years, while they gained 344%. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. Unfortunately, though, the stock has dropped 8.5% over a week. But this could be related to the soft market, with stocks selling off around 0.5% in the last week.

See our latest analysis for Mount Gibson Iron

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last half decade, Mount Gibson Iron became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. Indeed, the Mount Gibson Iron share price has gained 108% in three years. In the same period, EPS is up 8.4% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 28% average annual increase in the share price over three years. So one can reasonably conclude the market is more enthusiastic about the stock than it was three years ago.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:MGX Earnings Per Share Growth May 26th 2021

Dive deeper into Mount Gibson Iron's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Mount Gibson Iron's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Mount Gibson Iron, it has a TSR of 447% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Mount Gibson Iron shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 41% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 40%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Mount Gibson Iron you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

But note: Mount Gibson Iron may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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