Leo Lithium Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of LLL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

LLL (A$0.51) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$1.54)

Is LLL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LLL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LLL (A$0.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LLL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LLL?

Key metric: As LLL barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for LLL. This is calculated by dividing LLL's market cap by their current book value.
What is LLL's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio	3.3x
Book	AU$183.68m
Market Cap	AU$605.08m

LLL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	230.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does LLL's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for LLL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.6x
DVP Develop Global	1.6x	95.9%	AU$575.8m
MAH Macmahon Holdings	1.2x	11.1%	AU$739.0m
BRE Brazilian Rare Earths	5.6x	41.2%	AU$547.3m
BLY Boart Longyear Group	1.9x	n/a	AU$861.1m
LLL Leo Lithium	3.3x	54.8%	AU$605.1m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: LLL is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (3.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does LLL's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

19 Companies	Price / Book	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
HAS Hastings Technology Metals	0.2x	12.6%	US$35.06m
JRV Jervois Global	0.1x	n/a	US$20.28m
ADN Andromeda Metals	0.1x	25.5%	US$12.86m
CTO Citigold	0.1x	n/a	US$7.51m

19 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: LLL is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (3.3x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (1.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LLL's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LLL PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	3.3x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LLL's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2023/12/12 05:27
End of Day Share Price	2023/09/14 00:00
Earnings	2023/06/30
Annual Earnings	2022/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Leo Lithium Limited is covered by 5 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Reg Spencer	Canaccord Genuity
Jon Bishop	Jarden Limited
Sam Catalano	Wilsons Advisory and Stockbroking Ltd.