Earnings Miss: James Hardie Industries plc Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for James Hardie Industries plc (ASX:JHX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 4.3% to AU$26.91. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.10 per share on revenues of US$2.2b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for James Hardie Industries from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$4.78b in 2026. If met, it would imply a decent 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 109% to US$0.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.81 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for James Hardie Industries

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$36.78, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic James Hardie Industries analyst has a price target of AU$46.03 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$26.03. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting James Hardie Industries' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 35% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that James Hardie Industries is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for James Hardie Industries. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$36.78, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for James Hardie Industries going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with James Hardie Industries (including 2 which are concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.