IGO Limited Just Missed EPS By 99%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, IGO Limited (ASX:IGO) recently reported its full-year numbers. Results overall were not great, with earnings of AU$0.0037 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit AU$860m and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on IGO after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for IGO

After the latest results, the consensus from IGO's 16 analysts is for revenues of AU$544.6m in 2025, which would reflect a stressful 37% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 8,299% to AU$0.31. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$549.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.26 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the solid gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at AU$6.19, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values IGO at AU$8.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$4.55. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the IGO's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 37% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - IGO is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around IGO's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$6.19, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for IGO going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for IGO you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.