Stock Analysis

The Attractive Combination That Could Earn Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) A Place In Your Dividend Portfolio

ASX:GRR
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Today we'll take a closer look at Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) from a dividend investor's perspective. Owning a strong business and reinvesting the dividends is widely seen as an attractive way of growing your wealth. Unfortunately, it's common for investors to be enticed in by the seemingly attractive yield, and lose money when the company has to cut its dividend payments.

In this case, Grange Resources likely looks attractive to dividend investors, given its 6.2% dividend yield and nine-year payment history. We'd agree the yield does look enticing. That said, the recent jump in the share price will make Grange Resources's dividend yield look smaller, even though the company prospects could be improving. There are a few simple ways to reduce the risks of buying Grange Resources for its dividend, and we'll go through these below.

Explore this interactive chart for our latest analysis on Grange Resources!

historic-dividend
ASX:GRR Historic Dividend January 7th 2021

Payout ratios

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. As a result, we should always investigate whether a company can afford its dividend, measured as a percentage of a company's net income after tax. In the last year, Grange Resources paid out 19% of its profit as dividends. We like this low payout ratio, because it implies the dividend is well covered and leaves ample opportunity for reinvestment.

We also measure dividends paid against a company's levered free cash flow, to see if enough cash was generated to cover the dividend. Grange Resources' cash payout ratio last year was 22%. Cash flows are typically lumpy, but this looks like an appropriately conservative payout. It's positive to see that Grange Resources' dividend is covered by both profits and cash flow, since this is generally a sign that the dividend is sustainable, and a lower payout ratio usually suggests a greater margin of safety before the dividend gets cut.

With a strong net cash balance, Grange Resources investors may not have much to worry about in the near term from a dividend perspective.

We update our data on Grange Resources every 24 hours, so you can always get our latest analysis of its financial health, here.

Dividend Volatility

One of the major risks of relying on dividend income, is the potential for a company to struggle financially and cut its dividend. Not only is your income cut, but the value of your investment declines as well - nasty. The first recorded dividend for Grange Resources, in the last decade, was nine years ago. It's good to see that Grange Resources has been paying a dividend for a number of years. However, the dividend has been cut at least once in the past, and we're concerned that what has been cut once, could be cut again. During the past nine-year period, the first annual payment was AU$0.04 in 2012, compared to AU$0.02 last year. The dividend has shrunk at around 7.4% a year during that period. Grange Resources' dividend has been cut sharply at least once, so it hasn't fallen by 7.4% every year, but this is a decent approximation of the long term change.

When a company's per-share dividend falls we question if this reflects poorly on either external business conditions, or the company's capital allocation decisions. Either way, we find it hard to get excited about a company with a declining dividend.

Dividend Growth Potential

With a relatively unstable dividend, and a poor history of shrinking dividends, it's even more important to see if EPS are growing. It's good to see Grange Resources has been growing its earnings per share at 54% a year over the past five years. The company is only paying out a fraction of its earnings as dividends, and in the past been able to use the retained earnings to grow its profits rapidly - an ideal combination.

Conclusion

Dividend investors should always want to know if a) a company's dividends are affordable, b) if there is a track record of consistent payments, and c) if the dividend is capable of growing. It's great to see that Grange Resources is paying out a low percentage of its earnings and cash flow. We were also glad to see it growing earnings, but it was concerning to see the dividend has been cut at least once in the past. Overall we think Grange Resources scores well on our analysis. It's not quite perfect, but we'd definitely be keen to take a closer look.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. As an example, we've identified 2 warning signs for Grange Resources that you should be aware of before investing.

If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of dividend stocks yielding above 3%.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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