Genesis Minerals Limited

ASX:GMD Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$8.3b

Genesis Minerals Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Genesis Minerals is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 15.5% and 12.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 27.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 27.5% in 3 years.

Key information

15.5%

Earnings growth rate

27.39%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth14.7%
Revenue growth rate12.9%
Future return on equity27.53%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated17 Aug 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update Aug 07

GMD: Production Growth Outlook And Rebased Margins Will Drive Future Repricing

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Genesis Minerals, with the latest A$7.80 price target reflecting updated views on discount rates, revenue growth and profit margins, while also taking into account recent Street research that highlights the stock's valuation and production growth outlook. What’s in the News for Genesis Minerals Analysts revised their fair value estimate for Genesis Minerals, with a new A$7.80 price target that reflects updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update Jul 24

GMD: Vault Acquisition And Leonora Hub Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Genesis Minerals to A$7.00 from A$7.50, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, margins and future P/E multiples. They also highlight the A$7.80 Street price target as reflecting confidence in the company's production growth outlook.
Narrative Update Jul 10

GMD: Vault Minerals Bid And Synergy Upside Will Reshape Future Scale

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Genesis Minerals from A$9.16 to A$8.72. They now apply a slightly higher discount rate and more moderate assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, while keeping longer term P/E expectations broadly similar.
Narrative Update Jun 26

GMD: Record Output And Magnetic Resources Acquisition Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have raised their price target for Genesis Minerals to A$7.50 per share from A$6.03, citing updated estimates for revenue growth and profit margins, as well as a slightly lower future P/E multiple in their valuation analysis. What’s in the News for Genesis Minerals Genesis Minerals reported record annual gold production of 214,311 ounces in FY2025, with guidance for FY2026 in a range of 260,000 to 290,000 ounces.
New Narrative Apr 17

Tower Hill Execution And Cost Pressures Will Shape Long Term Production Outcomes

Catalysts About Genesis Minerals Genesis Minerals is a gold mining company with operations centered on the Leonora and Laverton regions in Western Australia. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative Feb 13

Tower Hill Acceleration And Mill Expansions Will Reshape Long Term Performance

Catalysts About Genesis Minerals Genesis Minerals is a gold producer with operations centered on the Leonora and Laverton regions in Western Australia. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative Jan 30

Accelerated Tower Hill Development And Mill Expansions Will Transform Long-Term Gold Production Potential

Catalysts About Genesis Minerals Genesis Minerals is an Australian gold producer operating the Leonora and Laverton mining and processing hubs. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Analysis Article Jan 04

We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) Passed With Ease

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Analysis Article Sep 21

Market Participants Recognise Genesis Minerals Limited's (ASX:GMD) Earnings Pushing Shares 26% Higher

Genesis Minerals Limited ( ASX:GMD ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period...
Analysis Article Sep 06

Is Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:GMD - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/20292,3396956991,1891
6/30/20282,0787266521,0609
6/30/20271,8586134198389
6/30/20261,74455044990912
12/31/20251,402399407667N/A
9/30/20251,161310322544N/A
6/30/2025920221238421N/A
3/31/2025741178132318N/A
12/31/202456113426216N/A
9/30/2024500117-1183N/A
6/30/202443999-28151N/A
3/31/202434424-36101N/A
12/31/2023249-51-4452N/A
9/30/2023163-81-487N/A
6/30/202377-112-53-38N/A
3/31/202360-81-41-30N/A
12/31/202244-50-29-22N/A
9/30/202222-48-23-20N/A
6/30/2022N/A-46-18-17N/A
3/31/20220-44-22-16N/A
12/31/20210-41-27-15N/A
9/30/20210-29-26-15N/A
6/30/20210-16-25-14N/A
3/31/20210-13-18-11N/A
12/31/20200-11-12-8N/A
9/30/20200-8-10-6N/A
6/30/20200-6-8-5N/A
3/31/20200-6-8-6N/A
12/31/20190-7-7-7N/A
9/30/20190-7N/A-7N/A
6/30/20190-7N/A-7N/A
3/31/20190-7N/A-7N/A
12/31/20180-7N/A-7N/A
9/30/20180-6N/A-5N/A
6/30/20180-6N/A-4N/A
3/31/20181-4N/A-1N/A
12/31/20172-2N/A1N/A
9/30/20177-2N/A1N/A
6/30/201711-1N/A2N/A
3/31/201710-1N/A0N/A
12/31/20169-2N/A-2N/A
9/30/20164-2N/A-2N/A
6/30/20160-2N/A-2N/A
3/31/20160-2N/A-1N/A
12/31/20150-1N/A-1N/A
9/30/20150-1N/A-1N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GMD's forecast earnings growth (15.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.8%).

Earnings vs Market: GMD's earnings (15.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GMD's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GMD's revenue (12.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GMD's revenue (12.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GMD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (27.5%)


Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/08/19 16:55
End of Day Share Price 2026/08/19 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Genesis Minerals Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mollie UrquhartBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Daniel MorganBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited