FireFly Metals Ltd

ASX:FFM Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$598.3m

FireFly Metals Valuation

Is FFM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FFM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FFM (A$1.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$5.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FFM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FFM?

Key metric: As FFM is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for FFM. This is calculated by dividing FFM's market cap by their current book value.
What is FFM's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio3.6x
BookAU$184.09m
Market CapAU$598.33m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does FFM's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for FFM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.8x
PDI Predictive Discovery
3.4x89.3%AU$576.0m
SXG Southern Cross Gold
14.8x103.7%AU$593.4m
CYL Catalyst Metals
3.6x33.1%AU$691.5m
PNR Pantoro
1.6x54.9%AU$645.4m
FFM FireFly Metals
3.6x55.9%AU$598.3m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: FFM is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (3.6x) compared to the peer average (6x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does FFM's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

17 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAS Hastings Technology Metals
0.2x12.6%US$31.21m
JRV Jervois Global
0.1xn/aUS$19.37m
ADN Andromeda Metals
0.2x25.5%US$17.67m
CTO Citigold
0.1xn/aUS$7.82m
FFM 3.6xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies94PB00.81.62.43.24+
17 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: FFM is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (3.6x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (1.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FFM's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FFM PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio3.6x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FFM's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FFM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.17
AU$1.70
+45.9%
11.0%AU$1.95AU$1.50n/a5
Nov ’25AU$1.31
AU$1.74
+32.6%
11.0%AU$1.95AU$1.50n/a4
Oct ’25AU$1.06
AU$1.45
+36.8%
7.7%AU$1.60AU$1.30n/a4
Sep ’25AU$0.95
AU$1.28
+34.2%
18.7%AU$1.60AU$1.00n/a4
Aug ’25AU$0.81
AU$1.28
+57.4%
18.7%AU$1.60AU$1.00n/a4
Jul ’25AU$0.74
AU$1.28
+72.3%
18.7%AU$1.60AU$1.00n/a4
Jun ’25AU$0.73
AU$1.17
+58.7%
14.6%AU$1.40AU$1.00n/a3
May ’25AU$0.78
AU$1.25
+60.3%
12.0%AU$1.40AU$1.10n/a2
Apr ’25AU$0.72
AU$1.25
+72.4%
12.0%AU$1.40AU$1.10n/a2
Mar ’25AU$0.49
AU$1.28
+157.6%
5.9%AU$1.35AU$1.20n/a2
Feb ’25AU$0.52
AU$1.28
+145.2%
5.9%AU$1.35AU$1.20n/a2
Jan ’25AU$0.63
AU$1.28
+102.4%
5.9%AU$1.35AU$1.20n/a2
Sep ’24n/a
AU$2.33
0%
16.1%AU$2.70AU$1.95AU$0.952
Aug ’24AU$0.50
AU$2.33
+362.7%
16.1%AU$2.70AU$1.95AU$0.812
Jul ’24AU$0.36
AU$2.35
+553.7%
14.7%AU$2.70AU$2.01AU$0.742
Jun ’24AU$0.46
AU$2.35
+406.1%
14.7%AU$2.70AU$2.01AU$0.732
May ’24AU$0.60
AU$2.42
+303.3%
11.6%AU$2.70AU$2.14AU$0.782
Apr ’24AU$0.72
AU$2.34
+225.6%
8.8%AU$2.55AU$2.14AU$0.722
Mar ’24AU$0.66
AU$2.34
+255.2%
8.8%AU$2.55AU$2.14AU$0.492
Feb ’24AU$0.85
AU$2.34
+174.2%
8.8%AU$2.55AU$2.14AU$0.522
Jan ’24AU$0.76
AU$2.70
+252.9%
16.7%AU$3.15AU$2.25AU$0.632
Dec ’23AU$0.85
AU$2.70
+215.8%
16.7%AU$3.15AU$2.25AU$0.512
Nov ’23AU$0.67
AU$2.70
+300.0%
16.7%AU$3.15AU$2.25AU$0.462

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Capral

AU$155.7m

Manufactures, markets, and distributes fabricated and semi-fabricated aluminum related products in Australia.

CAA

AU$9.19

7D

-1.3%

1Y

6.2%

Aurelia Metals

AU$296.0m

Engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia.

AMI

AU$0.17

7D

0%

1Y

58.1%

Aurelia Metals

AU$296.0m

Engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia.

AMI

AU$0.17

7D

-2.9%

1Y

54.5%