Earnings Miss: Fenix Resources Limited Missed EPS By 72% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Fenix Resources Limited (ASX:FEX), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with AU$316m revenue coming in 5.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.0071 missed the mark badly, arriving some 72% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Fenix Resources' two analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$620.0m in 2026. This would be a substantial 96% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 1,114% to AU$0.088. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$664.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.10 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Fenix Resources

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the AU$0.58 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Fenix Resources' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Fenix Resources' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 96% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 28% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Fenix Resources to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$0.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Fenix Resources going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Fenix Resources (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.