Bulletin Resources' (ASX:BNR) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear

We didn't see Bulletin Resources Limited's (ASX:BNR) stock surge when it reported robust earnings recently. We looked deeper into the numbers and found that shareholders might be concerned with some underlying weaknesses.

See our latest analysis for Bulletin Resources

A Closer Look At Bulletin Resources' Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Bulletin Resources has an accrual ratio of 4.31 for the year to June 2021. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Even though it reported a profit of AU$3.55m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through AU$146k in the last year. We also note that Bulletin Resources' free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of AU$146k. Having said that, there is more to consider. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Bulletin Resources.

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Bulletin Resources issued 46% more new shares over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out Bulletin Resources' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting Bulletin Resources' Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Three years ago, Bulletin Resources lost money. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. Therefore, one can observe that the dilution is having a fairly profound effect on shareholder returns.

If Bulletin Resources' EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Bulletin Resources' profit was boosted by unusual items worth AU$4.4m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that Bulletin Resources' positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to June 2021. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Bulletin Resources' Profit Performance

In conclusion, Bulletin Resources' weak accrual ratio suggested its statutory earnings have been inflated by the unusual items. Meanwhile, the new shares issued mean that shareholders now own less of the company, unless they tipped in more cash themselves. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Bulletin Resources' statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Our analysis shows 5 warning signs for Bulletin Resources (1 is a bit unpleasant!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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