Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALK (A$0.51) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$11.06)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALK (A$0.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$11.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALK?

Key metric: As ALK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALK. This is calculated by dividing ALK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17.3x
Earnings	AU$17.68m
Market Cap	AU$311.61m

ALK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.3x
PEG Ratio	0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	35.3x
TBR Tribune Resources	57.7x	n/a	AU$258.7m
X64 Ten Sixty Four	30.6x	n/a	AU$129.9m
RSG Resolute Mining	43.6x	42.2%	AU$862.3m
BCN Beacon Minerals	9.4x	n/a	AU$78.9m
ALK Alkane Resources	17.3x	36.3%	AU$311.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x) compared to the peer average (36.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated	1.8x	-13.3%	US$243.72m
RHI Red Hill Minerals	1.8x	n/a	US$181.28m
GRR Grange Resources	2.6x	n/a	US$176.74m
PTN Patronus Resources	2.3x	n/a	US$68.10m

9 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.3x
Fair PE Ratio	23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$0.51	AU$0.85 +68.3%	34.6%	AU$1.25	AU$0.55	n/a	3
Nov ’25	AU$0.55	AU$0.85 +54.5%	34.6%	AU$1.25	AU$0.55	n/a	3
Oct ’25	AU$0.43	AU$0.77 +78.3%	32.5%	AU$1.10	AU$0.50	n/a	3
Sep ’25	AU$0.42	AU$0.75 +76.5%	34.0%	AU$1.10	AU$0.50	n/a	3
Aug ’25	AU$0.44	AU$0.77 +74.2%	31.2%	AU$1.10	AU$0.55	n/a	3
Jul ’25	AU$0.48	AU$0.75 +54.6%	33.1%	AU$1.10	AU$0.55	n/a	3
Jun ’25	AU$0.56	AU$0.95 +69.6%	25.8%	AU$1.25	AU$0.65	n/a	3
May ’25	AU$0.59	AU$0.95 +61.0%	25.8%	AU$1.25	AU$0.65	n/a	3
Apr ’25	AU$0.63	AU$0.85 +36.0%	12.7%	AU$1.00	AU$0.75	n/a	3
Mar ’25	AU$0.49	AU$0.85 +73.5%	12.7%	AU$1.00	AU$0.75	n/a	3
Feb ’25	AU$0.57	AU$0.90 +56.5%	12.0%	AU$1.00	AU$0.75	n/a	3
Jan ’25	AU$0.66	AU$0.93 +42.5%	14.1%	AU$1.05	AU$0.75	n/a	3
Dec ’24	AU$0.66	AU$0.93 +41.4%	14.1%	AU$1.05	AU$0.75	n/a	3
Nov ’24	AU$0.59	AU$0.88 +48.3%	14.3%	AU$1.00	AU$0.75	AU$0.55	2
Oct ’24	AU$0.61	AU$1.03 +68.0%	2.4%	AU$1.05	AU$1.00	AU$0.43	2
Sep ’24	AU$0.66	AU$1.03 +56.5%	2.4%	AU$1.05	AU$1.00	AU$0.42	2
Aug ’24	AU$0.71	AU$1.03 +44.4%	2.4%	AU$1.05	AU$1.00	AU$0.44	2
Jul ’24	AU$0.70	AU$1.05 +48.9%	4.8%	AU$1.10	AU$1.00	AU$0.48	2
Jun ’24	AU$0.74	AU$1.05 +41.9%	4.8%	AU$1.10	AU$1.00	AU$0.56	2
May ’24	AU$0.88	AU$1.05 +20.0%	4.8%	AU$1.10	AU$1.00	AU$0.59	2
Mar ’24	AU$0.71	AU$1.10 +54.9%	9.1%	AU$1.20	AU$1.00	AU$0.49	2
Feb ’24	AU$0.69	AU$1.05 +51.1%	4.8%	AU$1.10	AU$1.00	AU$0.57	2
Jan ’24	AU$0.54	AU$1.05 +96.3%	4.8%	AU$1.10	AU$1.00	AU$0.66	2
Dec ’23	AU$0.66	AU$1.05 +59.1%	4.8%	AU$1.10	AU$1.00	AU$0.66	2
Nov ’23	AU$0.64	AU$1.05 +64.1%	4.8%	AU$1.10	AU$1.00	AU$0.59	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Alkane Resources Valuation