Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Austral Gold Limited (ASX:AGD) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is Austral Gold's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2024 Austral Gold had debt of US$25.5m, up from US$16.9m in one year. However, it also had US$6.97m in cash, and so its net debt is US$18.6m.
How Healthy Is Austral Gold's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Austral Gold had liabilities of US$26.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$32.7m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$6.97m and US$4.43m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$47.3m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$19.8m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Austral Gold would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Austral Gold will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot .
See our latest analysis for Austral Gold
Over 12 months, Austral Gold made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to US$37m, which is a fall of 23%. To be frank that doesn't bode well.
Caveat Emptor
While Austral Gold's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Indeed, it lost a very considerable US$18m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above make us nervous about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. Not least because it burned through US$7.9m in negative free cash flow over the last year. So suffice it to say we consider the stock to be risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Austral Gold (3 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:AGD
Austral Gold
Engages in the exploration, production, and mining of gold and silver deposits in Chile, the United States, and Argentina.
Slight and slightly overvalued.
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