Breakeven Date Change • Jun 30
Forecast to breakeven in 2029 The 5 analysts covering Alpha HPA expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of AU$47.2m in 2029. Average annual earnings growth of 44% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. New Risk • Jun 12
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: AU$39m Forecast net loss in 3 years: AU$5.4m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$510k revenue, or US$359k). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (AU$5.4m net loss in 3 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (28% increase in shares outstanding). Major Estimate Revision • Jun 12
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 17% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from AU$1.54m to AU$1.80m. EPS estimate reaffirmed at -AU$0.037 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 53% next year. Consensus price target of AU$1.09 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 4.7% to AU$0.78 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 31
MD & Director recently bought AU$80k worth of stock On the 27th of March, Robert Williamson bought around 150k shares on-market at roughly AU$0.53 per share. This transaction amounted to 9.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Robert has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of AU$125k worth in shares. New Risk • Mar 15
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 28% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$510k revenue, or US$357k). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (28% increase in shares outstanding). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 14
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 22%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from AU$1.89m to AU$1.46m. EPS estimate increased from -AU$0.036 to -AU$0.033 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 54% next year. Consensus price target of AU$1.17 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.3% to AU$0.56 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 02
First half 2026 earnings released: AU$0.02 loss per share (vs AU$0.014 loss in 1H 2025) First half 2026 results: AU$0.02 loss per share (further deteriorated from AU$0.014 loss in 1H 2025). Net loss: AU$22.5m (loss widened 42% from 1H 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 62% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 4% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 10
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 71% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from AU$6.58m to AU$1.89m. Forecast losses increased from -AU$0.033 to -AU$0.036 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target down from AU$2.00 to AU$1.35. Share price fell 2.7% to AU$0.72 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 09
Price target decreased by 21% to AU$1.35 Down from AU$1.71, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 89% above last closing price of AU$0.71. Stock is down 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$0.036 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$0.029 last year. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 09
No longer forecast to breakeven The 3 analysts covering Alpha HPA no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of AU$129.4m in 2028. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of AU$16.3m in 2028. New Risk • Feb 09
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: AU$33m Forecast net loss in 3 years: AU$16m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$318k revenue, or US$223k). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (AU$16m net loss in 3 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (25% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jan 30
Alpha HPA Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 225 million. Alpha HPA Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 225 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 140,000,000
Price\Range: AUD 0.75
Discount Per Security: AUD 0.031875
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 160,000,000
Price\Range: AUD 0.75
Discount Per Security: AUD 0.031875
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing Breakeven Date Change • Jan 30
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2027 The 2 analysts covering Alpha HPA previously expected the company to break even in 2028. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of AU$6.00m in 2027. Average annual earnings growth of 97% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Price Target Changed • Jan 29
Price target increased by 17% to AU$2.00 Up from AU$1.71, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 137% above last closing price of AU$0.84. Stock is down 2.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$0.032 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$0.029 last year. Announcement • Nov 24
Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 24, 2025 Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 24, 2025. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from AU$6.89m to AU$6.39m. Losses expected to increase from AU$0.026 per share to AU$0.032. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income decline 2.4% next year. Consensus price target of AU$1.71 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 5.1% to AU$0.75 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 14
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to AU$0.026 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 losses forecast to reduce from -AU$0.036 to -AU$0.026 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from AU$6.89m at last update. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 0.3% next year. Consensus price target of AU$1.71 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at AU$0.79 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Sep 01
Forecast to breakeven in 2028 The 2 analysts covering Alpha HPA expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 54% per year to 2027. The company is expected to make a profit of AU$71.8m in 2028. Average annual earnings growth of 74% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: AU$0.029 loss per share (further deteriorated from AU$0.027 loss in FY 2024). Net loss: AU$32.6m (loss widened 30% from FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 172%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 142% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in Australia are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 42% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 25% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Aug 30
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 23% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-AU$76m free cash flow). Earnings have declined by 23% per year over the past 5 years. Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$90k revenue, or US$59k). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (AU$6.8m net loss in 2 years). New Risk • Jul 01
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -AU$76m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-AU$76m free cash flow). Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$90k revenue, or US$59k). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (AU$21m net loss in 2 years). Major Estimate Revision • Jun 28
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 44% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from AU$2.26m to AU$1.26m. EPS estimate reaffirmed at -AU$0.03 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 15% next year. Consensus price target of AU$1.71 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at AU$0.81 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • May 09
Chairman of the Board recently bought AU$316k worth of stock On the 1st of May, Norman Seckold bought around 350k shares on-market at roughly AU$0.90 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Norman's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 05
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 92%, EPS downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from AU$2.08m to AU$4.00m. EPS estimate fell from -AU$0.021 to -AU$0.03 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$1.71. Share price rose 2.9% to AU$0.88 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 30
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 98%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from AU$7.08m to AU$160.0k. EPS estimate increased from -AU$0.017 to -AU$0.01 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target of AU$1.72 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at AU$0.87 over the past week. New Risk • Jan 29
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -AU$53m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-AU$53m free cash flow). Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$44k revenue, or US$27k). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (AU$8.4m net loss in 3 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (22% increase in shares outstanding). Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 31
COO & Executive Director recently bought AU$99k worth of stock On the 24th of December, Robert Williamson bought around 116k shares on-market at roughly AU$0.85 per share. This transaction amounted to 8.7% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Robert's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Breakeven Date Change • Dec 17
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Alpha HPA no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of AU$9.21m in 2027. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of AU$4.40m in 2027. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 13
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from AU$8.39m to AU$7.08m. Forecast losses increased from -AU$0.016 to -AU$0.017 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$1.72. Share price fell 13% to AU$0.88 over the past week. New Risk • Oct 30
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: AU$25m Forecast net loss in 3 years: AU$4.6m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$44k revenue, or US$29k). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (AU$4.6m net loss in 3 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (29% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Oct 25
Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 27, 2024 Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 27, 2024. Location: level 11, 5 martin place, sydney, nsw, Australia Price Target Changed • Oct 04
Price target decreased by 13% to AU$1.70 Down from AU$1.95, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 54% above last closing price of AU$1.11. Stock is up 61% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$0.009 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$0.027 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: AU$0.027 loss per share (further deteriorated from AU$0.019 loss in FY 2023). Net loss: AU$25.0m (loss widened 59% from FY 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 63%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 59%. Revenue is forecast to grow 97% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 06
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 60% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from AU$10.0m to AU$4.00m. Forecast losses increased from -AU$0.009 to -AU$0.017 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 17% next year. Consensus price target up from AU$1.95 to AU$2.00. Share price was steady at AU$0.86 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Jun 05
No longer forecast to breakeven The analyst covering Alpha HPA no longer expects the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of AU$58.0m in 2026. New forecast suggests the company will make a loss of AU$84.0m in 2026. Price Target Changed • Apr 18
Price target increased by 9.4% to AU$1.75 Up from AU$1.60, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 62% above last closing price of AU$1.08. Stock is up 9.6% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$0.011 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$0.019 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 27
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 53% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from AU$17.0m to AU$8.00m. Forecast losses increased from -AU$0.005 to -AU$0.011 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target down from AU$1.68 to AU$1.60. Share price was steady at AU$0.86 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 26
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026 The analyst covering Alpha HPA previously expected the company to break even in 2025. New forecast suggests the company will make a profit of AU$59.0m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 95% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Feb 29
First half 2024 earnings released: AU$0.01 loss per share (vs AU$0.005 loss in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: AU$0.01 loss per share (further deteriorated from AU$0.005 loss in 1H 2023). Net loss: AU$8.54m (loss widened 91% from 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 126% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 21% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Feb 29
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -AU$45m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-AU$45m free cash flow). Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$33k revenue, or US$21k). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (8.9% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jan 15
Alpha HPA Limited Appoints Marghanita Johnson as an Independent, Non-Executive Director, Effective January 15, 2024 The board of Alpha HPA Limited announced the appointment of Marghanita Johnson as an independent, non-executive director. Marghanita has been the CEO of the Australian Aluminium Council since 2019. She has over 25 years experience in the Australian mining and manufacturing sectors, predominantly within the aluminium industry. Prior to joining the Council she led government engagement and advocacy on behalf of Rio Tinto's Pacific Aluminium assets and prior to that held key climate and sustainability roles at Rio Tinto. Marghanita has Environmental Engineering and Chemistry degrees from the University of Western Australia. She is currently chair of the Australian Industry Greenhouse Network and a director of the Energy Users Association of Australia and has previously been a non-executive director on the board of the New Zealand Aluminium Smelter and the Tomago Aluminium Company. The date of appointment is January 15, 2024. Announcement • Dec 15
Alpha HPA Limited Appoints Annie Liu as an Independent, Non-Executive Director The Board of Alpha HPA Limited announced the appointment of Annie Liu as an Independent, Non-Executive Director. Annie Liu is a seasoned executive, having spent 20+ years in building and leading teams across stages from product incubation to rapid growth and scale-up in mature markets. Annie was the Executive Director at Ford (Model E) from 2022 to 2023. Prior to her role at Ford, Annie forged and managed Tesla's multi-billion-dollar strategic partnerships and sourcing portfolios that support Tesla's Energy and Battery business units including Battery, Battery Raw Material, Energy Storage, Solar and Solar Glass, including raw materials sourcing efforts such as lithium for battery cells. Earlier in her career, she held various leading manufacturing and procurement roles at Microsoft launching advanced technology products. Annie is a co-founder of Alto Group Inc, a trusted advisor and counsellor to many of the world's influential businesses in the EV value chain. Alto Group is also assisting Alpha on market engagements with a number of counterparties in the lithium-ion battery anode and cathode sector. Announcement • Nov 04
Alpha HPA Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 40 million. Alpha HPA Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 40 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 54,794,521
Price\Range: AUD 0.73
Discount Per Security: AUD 0.005475
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing Announcement • Nov 02
Alpha HPA Limited Announces the Retirement of Justin Werner and Cameron Peacock as Directors The Board of Alpha HPA Limited advised that Mr. Justin Werner and Mr. Cameron Peacock have retired as Directors, effective 2 November 2023. With the recent inclusion into the ASX300 and the substantial progress towards establishing significant production scale across the Company's HPA First Project and Alpha Sapphire businesses, the Company recognises the need to restructure the Board composition with a wider representation of more independent, non-executive Directors. Accordingly, the Company has commenced a process of seeking suitably qualified independent non-executive Director appointments. The Company has also commenced work on a renewed remuneration framework and will release details once the new framework has been finalised before the end of FY24. Both Mr. Werner and Mr. Peacock have played significant roles in the growth and development of Alpha, and the Board thanks them for their significant contributions. Mr. Peacock will continue to assist Alpha in a business development role. Announcement • Oct 27
Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023 Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023, at 11:00 AUS Eastern Standard Time. Location: Level 3, 60 Carrington Street, Sydney New South Wales Australia Agenda: To consider Approval of Remuneration Report;to consider Re-election of Mr Peter Nightingale as a Director;to consider Re-election of Mr Anthony Sgro as a Director;and to consider Re-election of Mr Robert Williamson as a Director. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 24
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 31% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from AU$13.0m to AU$17.0m. Forecast losses expected to reduce from -AU$0.009 to -AU$0.005 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income decline 1.7% next year. Consensus price target up from AU$1.31 to AU$1.54. Share price rose 4.2% to AU$0.74 over the past week. Announcement • Oct 18
Alpha HPA Limited Appoints Craig Jones as Chief Financial Officer, Effective on or Around 1 February 2024 The Board of Alpha HPA Limited announced that Mr. Craig Jones will join the Company as Chief Financial Officer (CFO). Craig has been working closely with Alpha as advisor to Alpha in respect of the Project Financing of the HPA First Project since April 2020 and has a strong working understanding of the Company and its business. Craig has nearly 25 years of experience in a wide variety of banking, corporate and financial advisory roles. He spent 18 years in various structured lending teams within leading commercial banks, including ANZ Bank where he worked for 12 years in Sydney, Singapore, Brisbane and London. For the past 5 years, Craig has been a Director in KPMG's Corporate Finance team and responsible for arranging and structuring finance for projects in the energy and natural resources sectors, with a particular focus on critical minerals. Craig will commence the role on or around 1 February 2024, based in the Alpha Brisbane office. Current CFO Peter Nightingale will assume the role as Finance Director. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 15
Non-Executive Director recently sold AU$494k worth of stock On the 14th of September, Anthony Sgro sold around 450k shares on-market at roughly AU$1.10 per share. This transaction amounted to 7.6% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: AU$0.019 loss per share (further deteriorated from AU$0.009 loss in FY 2022). Net loss: AU$15.7m (loss widened 113% from FY 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 46%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 44%. Revenue is forecast to grow 138% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 81% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Aug 01
CFO & Director exercised options to buy AU$2.4m worth of stock. On the 28th of July, Peter Nightingale exercised options to buy 2m shares at a strike price of around AU$1.10, costing a total of AU$2.2m. This transaction amounted to 11% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since September 2022, Peter has owned 18.49m shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought AU$10m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. New Risk • Jul 03
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -AU$38m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-AU$38m free cash flow). Revenue is less than US$1m (AU$36k revenue, or US$24k). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (7.8% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jun 08
Alpha HPA Limited Announces Receipt of Initial Payment of Federal Government Grant Funds Alpha HPA Limited announced that it has received an initial payment of $2.475 million including GST under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative - Collaboration Stream (`MMI-C') from the Commonwealth Department of Industry, Science and Resources. This follows the execution by the Company of a grant agreement with the Department of Industry. The total amount of the MMI-C grant is $45 million, which was initially announced by the Company on 16 March 2022. The MMI-C grant will be applied toward the capital expenditure of the full-scale HPA First Project. Alpha was the lead applicant, with the grant application supported by Orica Ltd. (`Orica') as joint applicant. 10% of the grant proceeds will flow to Orica to offset their capital expenditure required to support the HPA First Project. Major Estimate Revision • May 02
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 63% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from AU$8.00m to AU$3.00m. Forecast losses increased from -AU$0.01 to -AU$0.013 per share. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 19% next year. Consensus price target up from AU$1.02 to AU$1.31. Share price fell 3.9% to AU$0.98 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • May 01
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2025 The analyst covering Alpha HPA previously expected the company to break even in 2024. New forecast suggests losses will reduce by 2.5% per year to 2024. The company is expected to make a profit of AU$80.0m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 127% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Dec 20
Alpha Hpa Limited Provides an Update on Project Activities for Hpa First Project The Board of Alpha HPA Limited provided an update on project activities for its HPA First Project, representing the commercialisation and production of critical high purity aluminium products driving de-carbonisation. The Company's Stage 1, Precursor Production Facility (PPF) in Gladstone, QLD has now been commissioned and is currently in ramp-up phase to full production capacity. The Company is concurrently satisfying the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale Project Final Investment Decision (FID), with a focus on product sales, offtakes and project financing. Stage 1 - PPF: Commissioning complete - enters ramp-up phase Production of aluminium nitrate (Al-nitrate) during commissioning phase has now reached approximately 16 tonnes, with assays confirming production at the target 5N (99.999%) purity level. Commissioning is now complete and Alpha has shifted to ramp-up and throughput optimisation with a steady increase in process plant throughput from the current ~70% process rate to a target 100% process rate. Al-nitrate production will be paused for one week over the Christmas period to allow for the tie-in of downstream equipment and the conversion of Al-nitrates to high purity alumina (HPA). This will facilitate larger volumes of HPA production to service multiple sample orders from Li-ion battery and sapphire glass end-users. Orders placed for key long-lead equipment for Stage 1 HPA circuit: The first $6.82 million tranche of the $15.5 million grant awarded under the Critical Minerals Development Program (CMDP) has been received and funds and are now being applied to placing orders for key long lead equipment, including: Rotary dryer; Boehmite spray dryer; Boehmite filter press; Al-sulphate Centrifuge; HPA tunnel kiln; HPA tablet press; Sinter oven for HPA tablets (for sapphire glass production). Once fully deployed, the CMDP grant funding will have facilitated: The expansion of Stage 1 PPF production capacity of aluminium nitrate and aluminium sulphate; The capability to produce up to 10tpa of additional capacity of HPA production; The capability to produce up to 10tpa of additional capacity of High Purity Boehmite production; Production of HPA tablets for sapphire glass growth; and installation of a large rooftop solar array and battery storage capacity. Follow-on order for large EU based cathode manufacturer: Following successful low volume (1kg) sample testwork and a related project site visit, Alpha now has received a larger volume (60kg) follow-on order of a specific HPA product for the next stage of qualification with an EU based cathode manufacturer. This order is expected to be completed and shipped by the end of January 2023. Multiple new orders from EU based Li-battery manufacturer: Following a number of meetings and review of Alpha's products and low-carbon process, a large EU based Li-ion battery manufacturer has now ordered four test samples across most of Alpha's product range. These orders will be shipped over December 2022 and early January 2023. The ability to satisfy demand for multiple high purity aluminium products from a single production source is considered a key advantage of Alpha's process and the PPF facility. First nano-HPA sale order for Lumileds: After multiple rounds of sample product testing with leading global LED manufacturer Lumileds, Alpha has received its first minor sale order of nano HPA (5kg). A successful production run of this order by Lumileds is expected to lead to substantially larger production order in 2023. Follow-on high purity aluminium trihydrate orders: In November Alpha delivered its first sample orders for a newly developed product, 4N+ purity aluminium tri-hydroxide (ATH) for a potential high volume application. The counterparty has responded rapidly with an additional order. Another ATH order has been received from an EU battery maker. Each of these samples will be despatched this week. 25kg Al-nitrate order for EU catalysts manufacturer: Alpha supplied quotes for the supply of Al-nitrate to an EU catalysts manufacturer in October 2022. Alpha has now received and serviced a sample test order for 25kg for a qualification production run to complete in January 2023. Announcement • Nov 18
Alpha HPA Limited Provides Update on HPA First Project The Board of Alpha HPA Limited provided an update on project activities for its HPA First Project, representing the commercialisation and production of critical high purity aluminium products driving de-carbonisation. The Company's Stage 1, Precursor Production Facility (PPF) in Gladstone, QLD is now being commissioned. The Company is concurrently satisfying the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale Project Final Investment Decision (FID), with a focus on product sales, offtakes and project financing. STAGE 1 PPF: First reagent deliveries from Orica: The Stage 1 PPF has successfully received and offloaded the first bulk reagent chemicals from Orica, allowing for commencement of chemical commissioning. Chemical commissioning commenced: Process chemicals have now been introduced to the plant, including Orica chemicals, solvent extraction chemicals and aluminium feedstock from Rio Tinto. Aluminium extraction has commenced, with the tenor of extracted aluminium steadily building concentration to enable the commencement of the crystallisation circuit next week. All plant utilities and common reagent services are now in operation in support of chemical commissioning. Product Marketing: HPA delivery to sapphire glass counterparty in the EU: Alpha has delivered a large (100kg) test sample order of high-density (+3.5 g/cm3), HPA (>99.995%) as sintered tablets to an EU based sapphire growth counterparty as part of final qualification. Supply bid prices accepted for HPA to Japan-based chemical company: Following successful qualification of Alpha's nano-HPA with a Japanese based chemical company which manufactures specialist materials for the LED sector, Alpha has been notified its supply pricing has been accepted and the parties are now moving to sales contract documentation. Initial product volumes are modest, with an upper 10Mt per annum, however the application is for a premium product, with pricing at the top-end of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) pricing scenarios. Al-sulphate orders for cathode manufacture: Alpha has received and delivered additional high purity aluminium sulphate test orders for a large lithium-ion cathode manufacturer. Supply bids submitted for semiconductor users: Within the last week Alpha has successfully delivered multiple product test orders for high purity boehmite, nano-alumina and high purity aluminium nitrate to end users within the semi-conductor sector. Each of these products are used in polishing slurries for semi-conductor substrates (CMP polishing). On request, supply bid pricing has been submitted to a large North American based end-user. Additional sales of Al-nitrate and HPA powders: The Company has placed further small volume high value sales for Al-Nitrate (6kg @ USD 350/kg) and HPA powder (10kg @ ¥95,000/kg) to research end-users. These sales are expected to continue and assist in the development of longer-dated research-linked markets. First test orders for new high purity Al(OH)3 product: In response to multiple end-user requests, Alpha has now successfully developed a process for the manufacture of a >99.99% (4N) purity aluminium tri-hydrate (`ATH' or Al(OH)3). The first test order for high purity ATH has been manufactured in Brisbane and will be shipped at end of this week. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to AU$1.02 Up from AU$0.95, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 73% above last closing price of AU$0.59. Stock is up 7.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$0.012 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$0.0093 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors Following the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Non-Executive Director Regan Crooks was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Oct 20
Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 23, 2022 Alpha HPA Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 23, 2022, at 11:01 AUS Eastern Standard Time. Location: Computershare Investor Services Pty Ltd, Level 3, 60 Carrington Street Sydney New South Wales Australia Agenda: To consider approval of Remuneration Report; to consider re-election of Mr. Norman Seckold as a Director; to consider re-election of Dr. Regan Crooks as a Director; and to consider approval to issue 3 million options to Dr. Regan Crooks - Listing Rule 10.14. Announcement • Oct 06
Alpha Hpa Limited Updates on Project Activities for Its Hpa First Project The Board of Alpha HPA Limited provided an update on project activities for its HPA First Project, representing the commercialisation and production of critical high purity aluminium products driving de-carbonisation. Alpha is fully funded to commercial production at its Stage 1, Precursor Production Facility (PPF) in Gladstone, QLD, which has now commenced commissioning ahead of production of the Company's high purity Aluminium Precursors. The Company is concurrently satisfying the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale Project Final Investment Decision, with a focus on product sales, offtakes and project financing. Mechanical completion and start of commissioning The installation of all mechanical equipment is now complete and the mechanical completion certificate has been issued by the SMP (Structural, Mechanical and Piping) installer. Electrical and instrumentation (E&I) installation is close to completion. Commissioning activities have now commenced as summarised below: Process control and equipment testing The process control system is now installed and under commissioning including staging valves, test running electrical equipment including filter presses and bump testing of agitators and pumps. Process utilities testing The following process utilities have now been test run and vendor commissioned: Main air compressor; Demineralised water system; Cool water/chiller and cooling fan; Hot oil system; Fume extraction and scrubber system. Additionally, filling of the LPG tank has commenced and first reagent deliveries are scheduled for mid-October. Hydrostatic testing; Hydrostatic (water) testing and pneumatic testing of all major vessels and piping is complete. Administration and lab buildings Installation and certification of administration and laboratory buildings is complete and now formally occupied by the Alpha operations team. The operations team has now moved to 24/7 shift operations and finalising training, plant inspections and testing. Other site activities Other site activities include: Security fence and gate installed; Fire tanks filled and pump system tested and commissioned; Final landscaping underway. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 05
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from AU$13.0m to AU$8.00m. EPS estimate unchanged from -AU$0.007 per share at last update. Chemicals industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target of AU$0.90 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 8.8% to AU$0.43 over the past week. Announcement • Sep 08
Alpha HPA Limited Appoints Regan Crooks as Non-Executive Director The Board of Alpha HPA Limited announced the appointment of Dr. Regan Crooks as a Non-Executive Director. Regan is a Chemical Engineer who brings a wealth of experience in technology commercialization and corporate strategy at a critical time in Alpha's development as a world class industrial chemical company. Working in senior executive and consulting roles over the last 20 years, Regan has supported numerous multinationals, start-ups, research and venture capital groups to develop innovative products and to rapidly scale and enter global markets. As consulting CEO for private companies including Future Feed Pty Ltd. and Growave Pty Ltd, Regan has been directly involved and responsible for securing numerous international licensing and collaboration partnerships and bringing new technologies to market. Regan also has direct experience in the chemicals market having spent 7 years as R&D Manager at Solvay, a leading multinational chemical company, where she was a part of a senior management team developing and commercializing new products. Regan has a Bachelor of Chemical Engineering (Hons) from the University of Queensland, a PhD in Chemical Engineering from University of Melbourne, a Masters of Business Administration from the Australian Graduate School of Management and is a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD). Announcement • Sep 01
Alpha HPA Limited Provides Update on its First Project Alpha HPA Limited provided an update on project activities for its HPA First Project, representing the commercialisation and production of critical high purity aluminium products driving de-carbonisation. Alpha is fully funded to commercial production at its Stage 1, Precursor Production Facility (PPF) which is under construction in Gladstone, QLD and scheduled to commence commissioning ahead of production of the company's high purity Aluminium Precursors from the September quarter 2022. The company is concurrently satisfying the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale Project Final Investment Decision, with a focus on product sales and offtakes and project financing. MOU signed with Brenntag: Alpha has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Brenntag Holding GmbH (Brenntag) for the potential sale and/or distribution of Alpha's products within Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Alpha and Brenntag will work co-operatively and on a non-exclusive basis to develop end-user markets and logistics solutions to the battery chemical markets. The MoU also considers potential commercial collaboration in test and/or commercial production facilities. HPA order received for delivery from Stage 1 PPF: Following successful qualification, Alpha has received a sales order to a US based lithium-ion battery manufacturer for an initial 1 metric tonne of HPA for delivery from the Stage 1 PPF in April 2023. The customer is in the early stages of scaling their manufacturing, with much larger volume demand forecast from 2024. Further Al-nitrate sales: Alpha has received further high-value sales orders via as US based web-catalogue platform for a further 9kg @ $350/kg. The order is part of an ongoing series of sales over the previous 12 months delivering high purity aluminium nitrate to researchers and end-users. Alpha is anticipating larger volume orders through this avenue as the Stage 1 PPF ramps up production making commercial volumes available for manufacturing applications. Anode coating test work expands: Alpha has further expanded its test work in coating both lithium-ion cathode and anode active material utilising the company's 5N purity aluminium nitrate as the chemical precursor. Alpha now has active coating test work underway or commencing with seven separate counterparties including large scale battery manufacturers as well as both anode and cathode developers. The coating process is capable of delivering a fine controlled coating of either high purity alumina (Al2O3) or high purity boehmite (Al-O-OH) on either lithium-ion battery anode or cathode particles. The coating delivers a number of benefits including increased rate performance, improved safety and faster charging. First stage electrochemical results have proved strongly encouraging, particularly for the boehmite coating path, which as a lower temperature process, represents a significantly lower cost coating. The test work is specifically designed to facilitate increased end-user acceptance of Alpha's 5N purity aluminium nitrate precursor as the key ingredient in the coating process. Successful development of 5N purity anhydrous Al-sulphate precursor: Following interaction with a significant lithium-ion cathode manufacturer, Alpha's product development team have successfully developed an anhydrous form of its aluminium sulphate precursor at 5N purity. Alpha is now marketing both anhydrous and hydrated aluminium sulphate precursors, per below: Hydrous Al-sulphate >> Al2(SO4)3.16H2O and Anhydrous Al-sulphate >> Al2(SO4)3. Stage 1 PPF: The company continues to make good progress on the construction of the Stage 1 PPF component of the HPA First Project as detailed below: The Stage 1 PPF remains on track for commissioning in the September quarter. Mains electricity connected supplied with renewables via CleanCo: The Stage 1 PPF is now connected to mains electricity supplied via CleanCo QLD generated from 100% renewable sources. Administration and laboratory buildings installed: The administration and laboratory buildings are now installed with electrical connections and plumbing in place. The buildings are currently being fit out with Alpha targeting mid mid-September for occupation. Firewater, LNG and key reagent tanks installed: LNG and key reagent tanks are now installed at the PPF building. Fire water tanks are installed and filled. The fire water tank will service both Stage 1 and Stage 2 of the HPA First Project. Fencing and security gate installation commenced: Fencing and security gate installation is now underway with expected completion by mid-September. Operations readiness: Senior operations leadership and technical staff have now relocated to Gladstone to focus on operations readiness. All technical and operations positions have now been hired with the final cohort starting September 5th. With the remaining Stage 1 operation staff commencing, Alpha will have a 44% female workforce. Operations readiness programs include: technical training and assessment documentation under development (University of Alpha) structured to support progressive learning; commissioning and operating procedures under development with support from technology providers; pipe and valve labelling to support plant familiarisation; and laboratory equipment all on site and scheduled for installation and commissioning and method development. Stage 2 full scale project: In parallel with the PPF, the Company maintains a number of workstreams directed at completing the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale HPA First Project FID. Federal Govt $45 million MMI-C grant advanced: Alpha has been notified that $45 million grant approved under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative, collaborations stream (MMI-C) is now proceeding to negotiation of a grant agreement. The Company looks forward to working collaboratively with the Department of Industry, Science and Resources to complete the MMI-C grant agreement process. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Aug 03
MD, Technical Director & Director exercised options to buy AU$1.1m worth of stock. On the 29th of July, Rimas Kairaitis exercised options to buy 3m shares at a strike price of around AU$0.39, costing a total of AU$1.1m. This transaction amounted to 38% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since September 2021, Rimas has owned 7.16m shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought AU$2.9m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Announcement • Jul 20
Alpha HPA Limited Provides Update on Project Activities for HPA First Project The Board of Alpha HPA Limited provided an update on project activities for its HPA First Project, representing the commercialisation and production of critical high purity aluminium products driving de-carbonisation. Alpha is fully funded to commercial production at its Stage 1, Precursor Production Facility (PPF) which is under construction in Gladstone, QLD and scheduled to commence commissioning ahead of production of the Company's high purity Aluminium Precursors from the September quarter 2022. The Company is concurrently satisfying the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale Project Final Investment Decision, with a focus on product sales and offtakes and project financing. All major mechanical process equipment on site and installed Filter presses, raw material feed equipment, aluminium nitrate product bagging station and all production modules are installed. Control room on site to be installed this month. Main building electrical works complete, equipment cabling well underway Overhead lighting, roller doors operational. Power distribution cables being pulled on cable ladder and equipment cabling progressing. Main supply transformer works complete. Piping connections underway and solution pumps in place All process modules pipework progressing well. SX piping 80% complete, pumps in place. Reagent pumping and pipework are on track. Landscaping and civil works near completion All bitumen and concrete roads in place, stormwater swales operational and working as intended. Basic landscaping works are underway. Administrative and Laboratory building fabrication near completion The main administration and laboratory building is in the final stages of completion at the offsite workshop and is expected to be installed in August. Operational Readiness activities ramping up The PPF operations leadership team, initially based in Brisbane for training, commence relocation at the end of July. Hiring for operations staff in Gladstone received an overwhelming response from local applicants with an assessment centre conducted this week to finalise successful applicants. Operating procedures and training documentation is well underway. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors Following the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Non-Executive Director Cameron Peacock was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Jan 30
Price target increased to AU$0.92 Up from AU$0.83, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 31% above last closing price of AU$0.70. Stock is up 71% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$0.004 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$0.023 last year. Announcement • Dec 09
Alpha HPA Limited Provided an Update on Project Activities for Its HPA First Project The Board of Alpha HPA Limited provided an update on project activities for its HPA First Project, representing the commercialisation and production of critical high purity aluminium products driving de-carbonisation. Alpha is fully funded to commercial production at its Stage 1, Precursor Production Facility (PPF) which is under construction in Gladstone, QLD and scheduled to commence commercial production of the Company's high purity Aluminium Precursors from August 2022. The Company is concurrently satisfying the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale Project Final Investment Decision, with a focus on product sales and offtakes and project financing. The Company continues to make strong progress on the Stage 1 PPF component of the HPA First Project, as detailed below: Following mobilisation of earthmoving contractors in November, PPF site clearance has now been completed and excavations are underway in preparation for concrete foundations and underground infrastructure. Over 80% of the contracts for mechanical fabrication and process equipment for the PPF have now been awarded and are in fabrication. The remaining packages to be awarded in January 2022. Early hiring of key employees is underway to support operations readiness for the PPF commissioning. Key utility agreements are in final draft. Alpha maintains an active product marketing program, with a number of engagements now maturing to the commercial stage. In addition, Alpha continues to outreach to new markets and jurisdictions, as well as continuing to receive inbound product test and sales orders. Alpha has recently received and/or satisfied a number of product sales orders. Each of these sales are considered lead orders for potential larger volume contracts. Alpha has completed a sales order for its 5N purity Al-Nitrate precursor for sales into a global research chemical web catalogue. In reaching this arrangement, Alpha is now well placed to receive bulk orders generated from research work from this catalogue. Alpha has commenced sales of its spherical alumina powders following a period of product development. Alpha has completed an initial sale of 5kg of spherical HPA to large Japanese materials company, which will be used for pilot evaluation. The customer has indicated that a successful pilot result is expected to generate a high value product order. The Company is currently manufacturing a 30kg HPA powder order for an Australian domestic customer. A successful application of this order is also expected to generate longer term, high value product orders. Alpha continues to receive product test orders from potential customers. Over the last 3 weeks Alpha has received a further 3 orders, including: Follow on test orders for a Japanese LED phosphor manufacturer; Gamma alumina spheres for a German catalysts manufacturer; and High purity, high dispersible boehmites. Alpha's technical team has recently expanded its range of high purity aluminium products following a product development phase and interface with end-users and research groups. The expanded high purity offering is now forming part of the Company's continued market outreach and further demonstrates the capacity of Alpha's process flexibility. New products developed include: Alpha has now developed ultra-high purity (>99.995%) boehmites with very high dispersibility (>98%). This product has been developed from inbound demand from several potential customers. High dispersible boehmites are used in sol-gel applications in the manufacture of high value, speciality aluminas, including nano-aluminas and alumina for translucent ceramics. Alpha has developed a new spherical gamma alumina powder product in response to both inbound demand from a potential Japanese customer and German based research organisation (FGK Keramik). Gamma alumina is a very high surface area alumina used as a medical and petrochemical catalyst. Product test samples have been despatched to Germany and Japan for testwork. Like a number of other Alpha's product offerings, the Company is not aware of any higher purity gamma alumina products. As a follow on from product testing, qualification and submitted bids into supply contracts, Alpha has materially advanced a number of negotiations with potential customers for the supply of its high purity aluminium products, which include high purity aluminas, boehmites and aluminium precursors. In parallel with the PPF the Company maintains a number of workstreams directed at completing the remaining conditions precedent to the full-scale HPA First Project FID: Alpha has now received final draft reports from the Independent Technical Expert (`ITE' or `Bankers Engineers') as a key component to the lender due diligence. These reports are under review and are expected to be finalised in the next few weeks. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 16
Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$100k worth of stock On the 15th of October, Cameron Peacock bought around 200k shares on-market at roughly AU$0.50 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold AU$2.2m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Price Target Changed • Aug 18
Price target increased to AU$0.87 Up from AU$0.81, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 96% above last closing price of AU$0.45. Stock is up 93% over the past year. Breakeven Date Change • Jul 03
Forecast to breakeven in 2024 The analyst covering Alpha HPA expects the company to break even for the first time. New forecast suggests the company will make a profit of AU$93.0m in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 98% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 05
Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$90k worth of stock On the 3rd of June, Cameron Peacock bought around 150k shares on-market at roughly AU$0.60 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold AU$2.4m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Announcement • May 21
the Board of Alpha HPA Limited Provides an Update on HPA First Project The Board of Alpha HPA Limited provided an update on its HPA First Project, representing the evaluation and intended commercialisation of the production of ~10,000tpa equivalent of high purity alumina (HPA) and related products using the Company's proprietary licenced solvent extraction (SX) and HPA refining technology. On 30 April 2021, Alpha announced a Memorandum of Understanding (`MoU') with CleanCo Queensland Limited (`CleanCo')under which Alpha and CleanCo will co-operate on a Renewable Energy Supply Agreement (`REA') for the HPA First Project. The MoU contemplates the supply of up to 100% renewable energy. Alpha has now received an updated model of carbon-dioxide (`CO2') emissions for the proposed HPA First facility, under a range of renewable energy supply scenarios, from Project engineers Prudentia Process Consulting (`PPC'). The model accounts for all direct CO2 emissions and also accounts for N2O as CO2 equivalent emissions. Key outputs of the model are shown in the table below, with the highlight outcome: Using 100% renewable energy, the HPA First Project represents a 59% reduction in CO2 emissions, per unit of HPA produced, over the incumbent HPA manufacturing process (Alkoxide Process). The model has been constructed on a 100% high purity alumina production basis. The pending adoption of additional high
purity products into the Project mix, inclusive of the 2 high purity Al-Precursors and boehmite, would further reduce the Project CO2 emissions, due to the reduction in drying and calcination duty. The carbon footprint for the process was estimated by calculating the direct carbon dioxide emissions from burning natural gas and diesel fuel, carbon dioxide directly discharged through process vents and emissions associated from the receipt of electricity. The consumption/usage of natural gas, diesel fuel, electricity and process losses through vents was determined during a feasibility study involving pilot plant testwork, engineering and vendor input for the proposed process equipment. The emissions factors for each energy use were obtained from the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (`NGER') guidelines. The impact of N2O emissions has been included on a CO2 equivalent basis, allowing for catalytic conversion of Project exhaust streams. The alkoxide process is considered the dominant incumbent process for the manufacture of HPA. The feedstock for the process is high purity aluminium metal, which is synthesised to HPA by producing aluminium alkoxide with the addition of alcohol, converting to hydrated alumina by hydrolysis and then HPA is obtained by high temperature calcination. An estimate of the additional carbon dioxide generated by the alkoxide process compared to the Alpha process using the QLD emissions factor of 0.79 (kgCO2-e/kWh) is provided below: 0.79 (kgCO2-e/kWh) x 15.75kWh/kg = 12.44 kg CO2/kg of Al. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 17
Insider recently sold AU$2.5m worth of stock On the 12th of April, Grey Egerton-Warburton sold around 7m shares on-market at roughly AU$0.37 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of AU$2.5m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 10
New 90-day high: AU$0.42 The company is up 25% from its price of AU$0.34 on 12 November 2020. The Australian market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 18% over the same period. Announcement • Feb 04
Alpha HPA Limited Announces Appointment of Cameron Peacock as Non-Executive Director The Directors of Alpha HPA Limited announced the appointment of Mr. Cameron Peacock as a Non-Executive Director. Mr. Peacock holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Western Australia, a Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment from FINSIA and a Masters of Applied Finance from the University of Melbourne. Over the last 20+ years he has worked in numerous finance focused roles across banking, private equity and equity capital markets. In his more recent roles as an Investor Relations and Business Development executive across several resource companies, he has been deeply involved in the preparation and execution of numerous large-scale primary and secondary capital market transactions. He has an established network across the global resources and generalist investment funds and a well-established track record in assisting companies build and manage their institutional and retail investor bases. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 21
New 90-day high: AU$0.39 The company is up 16% from its price of AU$0.34 on 23 October 2020. The Australian market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 22% over the same period. Price Target Changed • Nov 19
Price target raised to AU$0.42 Up from AU$0.36, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. The new target price is 24% above the current share price of AU$0.34. As of last close, the stock is up 134% over the past year. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Nov 03
MD, Technical Director & Director exercised options and sold AU$750k worth of stock On the 2nd of November, Rimas Kairaitis exercised 10.00m options at around AU$0.15, then sold 6.00m of the shares acquired at an average of AU$0.27 per share and kept the remainder. For the year to June 2020, Rimas' total compensation was 41% salary and 59% non-salary (Indicating these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year). Since December 2019, Rimas' direct individual holding has increased from 2.98m shares to 3.10m. Company insiders have collectively sold AU$129k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months.