At AU$0.60, Is Alpha HPA Limited (ASX:A4N) Worth Looking At Closely?

While Alpha HPA Limited (ASX:A4N) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the ASX gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. Less-covered, small caps tend to present more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Alpha HPA’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Alpha HPA

What's the opportunity in Alpha HPA?

According to my valuation model, Alpha HPA seems to be fairly priced at around 3.84% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Alpha HPA today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth A$0.58, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Alpha HPA’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Alpha HPA?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 45% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Alpha HPA. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in A4N’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on A4N, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Alpha HPA you should be mindful of and 2 of these are concerning.

If you are no longer interested in Alpha HPA, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.