AUB Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

AUB Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.1% and 10% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 8.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13% in 3 years.

Key information

11.1%

Earnings growth rate

8.9%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth	7.8%
Revenue growth rate	10.0%
Future return on equity	13.0%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	20 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

CHIA:AUB - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	1,593	217	285	316	10
6/30/2026	1,521	201	264	294	10
6/30/2025	1,442	183	217	278	10
6/30/2024	1,050	137	76	82	N/A
3/31/2024	1,028	127	97	101	N/A
12/31/2023	1,005	116	118	121	N/A
9/30/2023	916	91	160	161	N/A
6/30/2023	827	65	201	202	N/A
3/31/2023	676	59	166	168	N/A
12/31/2022	525	53	130	133	N/A
9/30/2022	449	67	112	114	N/A
6/30/2022	373	81	93	96	N/A
3/31/2022	366	79	101	101	N/A
12/31/2021	359	77	108	107	N/A
9/30/2021	355	74	110	110	N/A
6/30/2021	352	71	112	113	N/A
3/31/2021	346	62	108	109	N/A
12/31/2020	340	54	104	105	N/A
9/30/2020	338	50	97	98	N/A
6/30/2020	335	47	90	90	N/A
3/31/2020	330	46	76	80	N/A
12/31/2019	325	45	63	70	N/A
9/30/2019	316	47	63	70	N/A
6/30/2019	307	48	62	70	N/A
3/31/2019	301	45	47	53	N/A
12/31/2018	294	43	31	37	N/A
9/30/2018	286	45	42	47	N/A
6/30/2018	278	47	52	58	N/A
3/31/2018	275	45	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2017	273	44	N/A	67	N/A
9/30/2017	269	39	N/A	61	N/A
6/30/2017	265	33	N/A	56	N/A
3/31/2017	257	32	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2016	250	31	N/A	43	N/A
9/30/2016	242	36	N/A	34	N/A
6/30/2016	234	42	N/A	25	N/A
3/31/2016	230	43	N/A	33	N/A
12/31/2015	226	45	N/A	41	N/A
9/30/2015	221	40	N/A	43	N/A
6/30/2015	217	35	N/A	44	N/A
3/31/2015	211	35	N/A	38	N/A
12/31/2014	204	36	N/A	32	N/A
9/30/2014	201	35	N/A	32	N/A
6/30/2014	199	35	N/A	32	N/A
3/31/2014	189	32	N/A	32	N/A
12/31/2013	180	30	N/A	31	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AUB's forecast earnings growth (11.1% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: AUB's earnings (11.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AUB's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AUB's revenue (10% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AUB's revenue (10% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AUB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/25 19:50
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

AUB Group Limited is covered by 20 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Anthony Hoo	ANZ Equities Pty Limited
Andrew Adams	Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Benjamin Brayshaw	Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited

AUB Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

AUB Group Limited Revises Earnings Guidance for the Year 2023

AUB Group Provides Earnings Guidance First First Half and Full Year of Fiscal 2022

AUB Group Limited Provides Earning Guidance for the Year 2022

Recent updates

CEO, MD & Director recently sold AU$252k worth of stock

New minor risk - Dividend sustainability

Final dividend increased to AU$0.59

AUB Group Limited Announces Dividend for Six Months Ended June 30, 2024

Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$1.26 (vs AU$0.65 in FY 2023)

AUB Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 31, 2024

AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB) agreed to acquire 80% stake in Movo Eastbourne Limited.

AUB Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 21, 2024

AUB Group Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 24.999975 million.

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

AUB Group Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 200.00002 million.

AUB Group Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 200.00002 million.

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 21% undervalued

Now 20% undervalued

First half dividend increased to AU$0.20

New minor risk - Earnings quality

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.49 (vs AU$0.023 in 1H 2023)

AUB Group Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Feb 20, 2024

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

AUB Group Limited Announces Changes to Its Board of Directors, Effective 2 November 2023

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.47 per share at 2.1% yield

AUB Group Limited Declares Dividend for the Six Months Ended on June 30, 2023, Payable on October 9, 2023

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.65 (vs AU$1.06 in FY 2022)

AUB Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 02, 2023

Now 20% undervalued

AUB Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Aug 22, 2023

AUB Group Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 150 million.

AUB Group Limited Revises Earnings Guidance for the Year 2023

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.004 (vs AU$0.40 in 1H 2022)

AUB Group Limited Appoints Andrew Kendrick as A Non-Executive Director

AUB Group Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Feb 22, 2023

AUB Group Limited Appoints Richard Deutsch as Non-Executive Director

AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB) completed the acquisition of 100% stake in Tysers Insurance Brokers Limited from Odyssey Investment Partners, LLC.

AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB) acquired Strata Unit Underwriting Agency Pty Ltd from Insurance Australia Group Limited (ASX:IAG).

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.38 per share

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: AU$1.06 (vs AU$0.93 in FY 2021)

AUB Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 03, 2022

AUB Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Aug 24, 2022

CEO, MD & Director recently bought AU$100k worth of stock

Austbrokers Holdings Ordinary Shares to Be Deleted from OTC Equity

AUB Group Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 70.778526 million.

AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB) agreed to acquire 100% of Tysers Insurance Brokers Limited from Odyssey Investment Partners, LLC for AUD 1,056 million.

Insufficient new directors

AUB in Discussions with Odyssey Investment Partners

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

First half 2022 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

AUB Group Limited Announces Fully Franked Ordinary Dividend for the Six Months Ended December 31, 2021, Payable on April 4, 2022

AUB Group Provides Earnings Guidance First First Half and Full Year of Fiscal 2022

Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently bought AU$58k worth of stock

Insider recently bought AU$50k worth of stock

Independent Non-Executive Director Raymond Carless has left the company

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.39 per share

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.95 (vs AU$0.64 in FY 2020)

AUB Group Limited Provides Earning Guidance for the Year 2022

Joint Company Secretary David Franks has left the company

First half 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.32 (vs AU$0.23 in 1H 2020)

New 90-day high: AU$17.75

AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB) acquired an additional 18.5% stake in Altius Group Pty Limited from minority shareholder.

AUB Group Limited to Report First Half, 2021 Results on Feb 23, 2021

New 90-day low: AU$16.24

AUB Group Limited Announces Partnership with Kelly+Partners Group

AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB) acquired 360 Underwriting Solutions Pty Ltd. from Denis Morrissey and Chris Lynch.

Non-Executive Chairman recently bought AU$52k worth of stock

New 90-day high: AU$16.77

New 90-day high: AU$16.43

AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB) acquired a 73.15% stake in Experien Insurance Services Pty Ltd.

New 90-day high - AU$15.51

Earnings released

An unknown buyer acquired Allied Health Australia Pty Ltd. from AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB).

AUB Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Aug 25, 2020