Sigma Healthcare Limited Just Beat EPS By 7.9%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Sigma Healthcare Limited (ASX:SIG) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.5% to close at AU$3.12 following the release of its full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of AU$6.0b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Sigma Healthcare surprised by delivering a statutory profit of AU$0.051 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Sigma Healthcare's eight analysts is for revenues of AU$10.4b in 2026. This would reflect a sizeable 74% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 36% to AU$0.062. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$9.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.06 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Sigma Healthcare

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of AU$3.01, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sigma Healthcare at AU$3.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$2.45. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Sigma Healthcare's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 74% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 17% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Sigma Healthcare is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Sigma Healthcare following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$3.01, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sigma Healthcare going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Sigma Healthcare you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.