Treasury Wine Estates Limited

CHIA:TWE Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$9.4b

Treasury Wine Estates Valuation

Is TWE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TWE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TWE (A$11.55) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$23.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TWE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TWE?

Key metric: As TWE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TWE. This is calculated by dividing TWE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TWE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio94.8x
EarningsAU$98.90m
Market CapAU$9.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TWE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TWE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.8x
EMI Emperador
42.1x26.5%₱282.3b
CUERVO * Becle. de
21.7x21.1%Mex$93.5b
CGC Costa Group Holdings
68.9x39.3%AU$1.5b
CPR Davide Campari-Milano
22.4x15.7%€6.9b
TWE Treasury Wine Estates
94.8x26.8%AU$9.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TWE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.8x) compared to the peer average (38.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TWE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Beverage Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TWE 94.8xIndustry Avg. 17.9xNo. of Companies32PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TWE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.8x) compared to the Global Beverage industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TWE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TWE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio94.8x
Fair PE Ratio40.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TWE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TWE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$11.55
AU$14.17
+22.7%
9.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a14
Nov ’25AU$11.13
AU$14.00
+25.8%
10.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a15
Oct ’25AU$11.64
AU$14.00
+20.3%
10.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a15
Sep ’25AU$11.41
AU$14.00
+22.7%
10.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a15
Aug ’25AU$12.34
AU$14.08
+14.1%
9.7%AU$16.00AU$11.50n/a15
Jul ’25AU$12.13
AU$14.08
+16.1%
9.9%AU$16.00AU$11.50n/a15
Jun ’25AU$11.31
AU$13.83
+22.2%
11.4%AU$16.50AU$11.00n/a15
May ’25AU$11.71
AU$13.80
+17.8%
12.4%AU$17.00AU$11.00n/a15
Apr ’25AU$12.43
AU$13.38
+7.7%
13.3%AU$17.00AU$10.00n/a15
Mar ’25AU$12.38
AU$13.13
+6.0%
10.1%AU$15.25AU$10.00n/a14
Feb ’25AU$10.76
AU$13.03
+21.1%
10.6%AU$14.75AU$9.50n/a14
Jan ’25AU$10.77
AU$13.08
+21.4%
11.5%AU$15.45AU$9.50n/a13
Dec ’24AU$10.63
AU$13.01
+22.4%
11.8%AU$15.69AU$9.50n/a14
Nov ’24AU$12.12
AU$13.03
+7.5%
11.6%AU$15.85AU$9.50AU$11.1314
Oct ’24AU$12.31
AU$13.03
+5.9%
12.1%AU$15.75AU$10.00AU$11.6415
Sep ’24AU$11.63
AU$13.03
+12.1%
12.1%AU$15.75AU$10.00AU$11.4115
Aug ’24AU$11.31
AU$13.09
+15.7%
12.7%AU$15.95AU$10.00AU$12.3416
Jul ’24AU$11.23
AU$13.34
+18.8%
11.4%AU$15.95AU$10.00AU$12.1316
Jun ’24AU$11.56
AU$13.34
+15.4%
11.4%AU$15.95AU$10.00AU$11.3116
May ’24AU$13.89
AU$14.31
+3.1%
12.3%AU$17.30AU$10.00AU$11.7115
Apr ’24AU$13.06
AU$14.06
+7.6%
10.4%AU$15.40AU$10.00AU$12.4315
Mar ’24AU$13.74
AU$13.95
+1.5%
10.7%AU$15.40AU$10.00AU$12.3816
Feb ’24AU$14.64
AU$14.06
-4.0%
11.5%AU$16.00AU$10.00AU$10.7616
Jan ’24AU$13.68
AU$13.87
+1.4%
10.7%AU$16.00AU$10.50AU$10.7716
Dec ’23AU$13.80
AU$13.80
-0.004%
10.7%AU$16.00AU$10.50AU$10.6317
Nov ’23AU$12.97
AU$13.82
+6.6%
10.6%AU$16.00AU$10.50AU$12.1217

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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