Treasury Wine Estates Limited

CHIA:TWE Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$8.6b

Treasury Wine Estates Valuation

Is TWE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TWE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
AU$24.58
Fair Value
56.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TWE (A$10.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$24.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TWE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TWE?

Key metric: As TWE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TWE. This is calculated by dividing TWE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TWE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio87.4x
EarningsAU$98.90m
Market CapAU$8.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TWE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TWE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35.5x
BGA Bega Cheese
57.4x22.5%AU$1.8b
ELD Elders
29.7x25.4%AU$1.3b
EMI Emperador
34.6x18.9%₱232.0b
CPR Davide Campari-Milano
20.5x14.3%€6.5b
TWE Treasury Wine Estates
87.4x26.8%AU$8.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TWE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (87.4x) compared to the peer average (35.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TWE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Beverage Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TWE 87.4xIndustry Avg. 16.8xNo. of Companies36PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TWE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (87.4x) compared to the Global Beverage industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TWE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TWE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio87.4x
Fair PE Ratio43.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TWE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (87.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TWE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$10.61
AU$13.77
+29.8%
8.6%AU$15.50AU$11.50n/a13
Jan ’26AU$11.38
AU$14.17
+24.5%
9.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a14
Dec ’25AU$11.29
AU$14.17
+25.5%
9.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a14
Nov ’25AU$11.13
AU$14.00
+25.8%
10.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a15
Oct ’25AU$11.64
AU$14.00
+20.3%
10.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a15
Sep ’25AU$11.41
AU$14.00
+22.7%
10.0%AU$16.50AU$11.50n/a15
Aug ’25AU$12.34
AU$14.08
+14.1%
9.7%AU$16.00AU$11.50n/a15
Jul ’25AU$12.13
AU$14.08
+16.1%
9.9%AU$16.00AU$11.50n/a15
Jun ’25AU$11.31
AU$13.83
+22.2%
11.4%AU$16.50AU$11.00n/a15
May ’25AU$11.71
AU$13.80
+17.8%
12.4%AU$17.00AU$11.00n/a15
Apr ’25AU$12.43
AU$13.38
+7.7%
13.3%AU$17.00AU$10.00n/a15
Mar ’25AU$12.38
AU$13.13
+6.0%
10.1%AU$15.25AU$10.00n/a14
Feb ’25AU$10.76
AU$13.03
+21.1%
10.6%AU$14.75AU$9.50AU$10.8614
Jan ’25AU$10.77
AU$13.08
+21.4%
11.5%AU$15.45AU$9.50AU$11.3813
Dec ’24AU$10.63
AU$13.01
+22.4%
11.8%AU$15.69AU$9.50AU$11.2914
Nov ’24AU$12.12
AU$13.03
+7.5%
11.6%AU$15.85AU$9.50AU$11.1314
Oct ’24AU$12.31
AU$13.03
+5.9%
12.1%AU$15.75AU$10.00AU$11.6415
Sep ’24AU$11.63
AU$13.03
+12.1%
12.1%AU$15.75AU$10.00AU$11.4115
Aug ’24AU$11.31
AU$13.09
+15.7%
12.7%AU$15.95AU$10.00AU$12.3416
Jul ’24AU$11.23
AU$13.34
+18.8%
11.4%AU$15.95AU$10.00AU$12.1316
Jun ’24AU$11.56
AU$13.34
+15.4%
11.4%AU$15.95AU$10.00AU$11.3116
May ’24AU$13.89
AU$14.31
+3.1%
12.3%AU$17.30AU$10.00AU$11.7115
Apr ’24AU$13.06
AU$14.06
+7.6%
10.4%AU$15.40AU$10.00AU$12.4315
Mar ’24AU$13.74
AU$13.95
+1.5%
10.7%AU$15.40AU$10.00AU$12.3816
Feb ’24AU$14.64
AU$14.06
-4.0%
11.5%AU$16.00AU$10.00AU$10.7616
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
AU$13.72
Fair Value
22.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/05 06:34
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/05 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Treasury Wine Estates Limited is covered by 27 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Thomas KierathBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
David ErringtonBofA Global Research