We Wouldn't Rely On Tassal Group's (ASX:TGR) Statutory Earnings As A Guide

Many investors consider it preferable to invest in profitable companies over unprofitable ones, because profitability suggests a business is sustainable. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. Today we'll focus on whether this year's statutory profits are a good guide to understanding Tassal Group (ASX:TGR).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Tassal Group made a profit of AU$66.4m on revenue of AU$505.7m. In the chart below, you can see that its profit and revenue have both grown over the last three years, although its revenue has slipped in the last twelve months.

View our latest analysis for Tassal Group

Not all profits are equal, and we can learn more about the nature of a company's past profitability by diving deeper into the financial statements. So today we'll look at what Tassal Group's cashflow tells us about its earnings, as well as examining how issuing shares is impacting shareholder value. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Zooming In On Tassal Group's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Tassal Group has an accrual ratio of 0.21 for the year to December 2019. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of AU$101m despite its profit of AU$66.4m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was AU$4.5m a year ago though, so Tassal Group has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings.

In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. In fact, Tassal Group increased the number of shares on issue by 17% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of Tassal Group's EPS by clicking here.

A Look At The Impact Of Tassal Group's Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

Tassal Group has improved its profit over the last three years, with an annualized gain of 30% in that time. In comparison, earnings per share only gained 2.9% over the same period. And in the last year the company managed to bump profit up by 7.6%. On the other hand, earnings per share are pretty much flat, over the last twelve months. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

In the long term, earnings per share growth should beget share price growth. So Tassal Group shareholders will want to see that EPS figure continue to increase. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

Our Take On Tassal Group's Profit Performance

As it turns out, Tassal Group couldn't match its profit with cashflow and its dilution means that earnings per share growth is lagging net income growth. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Tassal Group's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Tassal Group at this point in time. For example, Tassal Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

Our examination of Tassal Group has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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