Stock Analysis

Loss-making LARK Distilling (ASX:LRK) sheds a further AU$11m, taking total shareholder losses to 46% over 1 year

Published
ASX:LRK

It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. That downside risk was realized by LARK Distilling Co. Ltd. (ASX:LRK) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 46%. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 3.0%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 10% in the last three years. Furthermore, it's down 12% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

See our latest analysis for LARK Distilling

LARK Distilling isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

LARK Distilling's revenue didn't grow at all in the last year. In fact, it fell 16%. That looks pretty grim, at a glance. Shareholders have seen the share price drop 46% in that time. What would you expect when revenue is falling, and it doesn't make a profit? We think most holders must believe revenue growth will improve, or else costs will decline.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:LRK Earnings and Revenue Growth November 21st 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 3.0% in the last year, LARK Distilling shareholders lost 46%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.7% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand LARK Distilling better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with LARK Distilling , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

LARK Distilling is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.