Paladin Energy Ltd

CHIA:PDN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.4b

Paladin Energy Valuation

Is PDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
AU$23.70
Fair Value
74.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: PDN (A$6.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$23.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PDN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PDN?

Key metric: As PDN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for PDN. This is calculated by dividing PDN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is PDN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio11.4x
SalesUS$138.23m
Market CapUS$1.58b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does PDN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for PDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.5x
BOE Boss Energy
34.6x36.58%AU$1.7b
NHC New Hope
1.6x1.24%AU$3.2b
WHC Whitehaven Coal
0.8x2.06%AU$4.7b
YAL Yancoal Australia
1x-1.39%AU$7.1b
PDN Paladin Energy
11.4x34.05%AU$2.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: PDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.4x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does PDN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

34 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WDS Woodside Energy Group
2.1x0.38%US$27.81b
STO Santos
2.6x7.43%US$13.88b
YAL Yancoal Australia
1x-1.39%US$4.54b
ALD Ampol
0.2x-2.17%US$3.89b
PDN 11.4xIndustry Avg. 6.9xNo. of Companies34PS020406080100+
34 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: PDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.4x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (6.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PDN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PDN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio11.4x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: PDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.12
AU$7.90
+29.11%
27.57%AU$12.72AU$4.77n/a14
May ’26AU$6.04
AU$7.82
+29.42%
28.67%AU$12.80AU$4.81n/a14
Apr ’26AU$4.82
AU$9.49
+96.92%
30.27%AU$15.40AU$5.23n/a12
Mar ’26AU$6.87
AU$11.98
+74.40%
18.63%AU$15.51AU$9.16n/a9
Feb ’26AU$8.97
AU$12.44
+38.70%
18.45%AU$15.83AU$9.09n/a9
Jan ’26AU$7.52
AU$13.07
+73.74%
17.41%AU$15.92AU$10.10n/a8
Dec ’25AU$7.57
AU$12.80
+69.05%
16.00%AU$15.78AU$9.76n/a8
Nov ’25AU$10.18
AU$14.28
+40.30%
11.55%AU$16.38AU$11.18n/a8
Oct ’25AU$11.77
AU$14.33
+21.74%
14.34%AU$16.64AU$10.60n/a9
Sep ’25AU$9.83
AU$15.47
+57.41%
8.96%AU$16.80AU$12.16n/a8
Aug ’25AU$11.73
AU$16.01
+36.47%
8.65%AU$17.15AU$12.51n/a8
Jul ’25AU$12.53
AU$15.95
+27.30%
8.88%AU$16.97AU$12.37n/a8
Jun ’25AU$15.93
AU$16.09
+1.03%
10.55%AU$18.27AU$12.37n/a9
May ’25AU$14.80
AU$16.22
+9.58%
9.55%AU$18.03AU$12.66AU$6.049
Apr ’25AU$13.70
AU$14.58
+6.39%
8.05%AU$16.14AU$12.60AU$4.828
Mar ’25AU$12.00
AU$14.93
+24.38%
6.58%AU$16.23AU$13.18AU$6.877
Feb ’25AU$12.83
AU$14.51
+13.16%
6.13%AU$16.02AU$13.01AU$8.977
Jan ’25AU$9.88
AU$11.83
+19.82%
11.52%AU$14.05AU$10.25AU$7.527
Dec ’24AU$10.35
AU$11.63
+12.33%
11.86%AU$13.49AU$9.16AU$7.577
Nov ’24AU$10.15
AU$11.97
+17.97%
12.31%AU$13.95AU$9.47AU$10.187
Oct ’24AU$11.00
AU$11.54
+4.93%
19.83%AU$13.95AU$6.58AU$11.777
Sep ’24AU$8.75
AU$10.03
+14.62%
16.64%AU$11.46AU$6.52AU$9.837
Aug ’24AU$7.73
AU$9.93
+28.53%
18.08%AU$11.59AU$6.29AU$11.737
Jul ’24AU$7.30
AU$10.12
+38.66%
18.60%AU$11.62AU$6.39AU$12.536
Jun ’24AU$6.05
AU$10.11
+67.11%
21.14%AU$13.36AU$6.43AU$15.936
May ’24AU$6.50
AU$10.09
+55.20%
20.85%AU$13.27AU$6.39AU$14.806
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
AU$7.88
Fair Value
22.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/29 04:34
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/29 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Paladin Energy Ltd is covered by 40 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Regan BurrowsBell Potter
Jay TurnerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research