Karoon Energy Ltd

CHIA:KAR Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.1b

Karoon Energy Valuation

Is KAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KAR (A$1.39) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$6.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KAR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KAR?

Key metric: As KAR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KAR. This is calculated by dividing KAR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KAR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio2.9x
EarningsUS$245.00m
Market CapUS$705.50m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.4x
HZN Horizon Oil
8x4.2%AU$309.1m
STX Strike Energy
71.8x37.5%AU$616.1m
ECH Echelon Resources
22.6xn/aAU$80.6m
BRK Brookside Energy
3.2x49.1%AU$45.3m
KAR Karoon Energy
2.9x-12.1%AU$1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.9x) compared to the peer average (26.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FAR FAR
0.7xn/aUS$29.13m
IKW Ikwezi Mining
1.7xn/aUS$12.55m
XST Xstate Resources
0.7xn/aUS$1.89m
No more companies available in this PE range
KAR 2.9xIndustry Avg. 13.3xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.9x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio2.9x
Fair PE Ratio7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.39
AU$2.30
+65.7%
9.4%AU$2.65AU$2.00n/a12
Nov ’25AU$1.40
AU$2.30
+64.5%
9.4%AU$2.65AU$2.00n/a12
Oct ’25AU$1.52
AU$2.40
+58.2%
13.6%AU$3.28AU$1.98n/a14
Sep ’25AU$1.73
AU$2.43
+40.4%
12.6%AU$3.28AU$1.98n/a14
Aug ’25AU$1.95
AU$2.47
+27.2%
12.1%AU$3.28AU$1.98n/a14
Jul ’25AU$1.82
AU$2.53
+39.4%
11.9%AU$3.28AU$2.00n/a14
Jun ’25AU$1.80
AU$2.54
+41.7%
12.3%AU$3.28AU$2.00n/a14
May ’25AU$1.88
AU$2.56
+36.0%
11.8%AU$3.28AU$2.00n/a14
Apr ’25AU$2.15
AU$2.65
+23.1%
10.8%AU$3.28AU$2.30n/a14
Mar ’25AU$1.97
AU$2.63
+33.6%
11.1%AU$3.28AU$2.30n/a13
Feb ’25AU$1.96
AU$2.56
+30.9%
8.0%AU$3.00AU$2.20n/a12
Jan ’25AU$2.02
AU$2.71
+34.0%
11.2%AU$3.50AU$2.20n/a12
Dec ’24AU$2.05
AU$2.81
+37.3%
8.8%AU$3.50AU$2.53n/a11
Nov ’24AU$2.53
AU$2.84
+12.3%
8.3%AU$3.30AU$2.55AU$1.4010
Oct ’24AU$2.63
AU$2.87
+9.2%
13.2%AU$3.64AU$2.48AU$1.5211
Sep ’24AU$2.48
AU$2.77
+11.7%
12.3%AU$3.64AU$2.48AU$1.7311
Aug ’24AU$2.23
AU$2.76
+23.9%
13.2%AU$3.64AU$2.40AU$1.9511
Jul ’24AU$1.96
AU$2.79
+42.3%
15.0%AU$3.64AU$2.30AU$1.8211
Jun ’24AU$2.01
AU$2.83
+40.6%
16.5%AU$3.65AU$2.19AU$1.8010
May ’24AU$2.14
AU$2.85
+33.0%
16.5%AU$3.65AU$2.19AU$1.8810
Apr ’24AU$2.14
AU$2.93
+37.0%
17.3%AU$3.80AU$2.27AU$2.159
Mar ’24AU$2.25
AU$2.95
+31.2%
14.8%AU$3.60AU$2.33AU$1.978
Feb ’24AU$2.30
AU$2.92
+27.0%
17.3%AU$3.70AU$2.31AU$1.968
Jan ’24AU$2.20
AU$2.85
+29.7%
18.5%AU$3.75AU$2.25AU$2.028
Dec ’23AU$2.39
AU$2.79
+16.7%
19.2%AU$3.75AU$2.25AU$2.058
Nov ’23AU$2.19
AU$2.76
+25.9%
20.9%AU$3.75AU$1.98AU$2.538

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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