Santos Limited

ASX:STO Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$25.6b

Santos Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Santos is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 13.4% and 6.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 14% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.5% in 3 years.

Key information

13.4%

Earnings growth rate

14.01%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth12.9%
Revenue growth rate6.6%
Future return on equity9.48%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated30 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

STO: Future Returns Will Depend On Low Costs And Papua LNG Execution

Analysts have nudged their price target on Santos higher to A$8.59 from A$8.56, citing updated fair value work that reflects its low cost operating model and planned production growth, supported by expectations around Papua LNG reaching final investment decision by mid 2026. Analyst Commentary Analysts reacting to the recent update on Santos are highlighting both supports and pressure points for the equity story, with views clustering around execution on growth projects, cash generation and how much of the medium term outlook is already reflected in the share price.

STO: Future Upside Will Rely On Low Costs And Papua LNG Progress

Analysts have nudged their price targets for Santos higher, with fair value moving from A$8.49 to A$8.56. This reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, margins and production outlook tied to recent research that highlights Santos' low cost model and planned production expansion supported by progress at Papua LNG.

STO: Future Returns Will Reflect Low Costs And Papua LNG Execution Risk

The analyst fair value estimate for Santos has shifted from A$7.95 to A$8.49. The change is linked to recent upgrades that highlight the company's low cost model and planned production growth as key supports for higher price targets around A$7.30 to A$7.50.

STO: Future Returns Will Reflect Low Costs And Asset Review Execution Risk

Analysts have lifted their average price target for Santos to about A$7.95, up from roughly A$7.55, citing a solid in line result, expectations for more than 25% production growth by 2027 and a supportive low cost operating model, along with updated Street views that factor in more moderate assumptions for future commodity prices. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to Santos' low cost operating model as a key support for margins and cash generation potential, which they see as helping to underpin the higher A$7.30 to A$7.50 price targets.

Santos: Undervalued After Takeover Fallout

Santos (ASX: STO) experienced a sharp share price drop after the failed A$36 billion takeover by a consortium led by ADNOC. While the deal’s withdrawal removed a near-term premium, it highlighted the strategic value of Santos’ LNG and gas assets.

STO: Future Returns Will Reflect Low Costs And Papua LNG Execution Risk

The analyst price target for Santos has moved from A$6.75 to A$7.50, with analysts pointing to a solid in line result, a low cost operating model, and expectations for production growth and Papua LNG progress as key supports for the higher fair value and slightly adjusted discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the move in price targets to A$7.30 to A$7.50 as better aligning the stock with their updated fair value assumptions after a solid in line result and a reaffirmed low cost operating model.

STO: Future Returns Will Reflect Less Bearish 2026 Commodity Assumptions

Narrative Update on Santos Analysts have trimmed their Santos price target slightly to A$7.29 from A$7.38, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rate and future P/E as they factor in expectations for 2026 oil and gas prices that are less bearish than broader consensus. Analyst Commentary Recent research has seen a shift in tone around Santos, with bullish analysts lifting their stance even while building in lower oil and gas price assumptions for 2026.

STO: Future Share Momentum Will Reflect Less Bearish 2026 Commodity Assumptions

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Santos to about A$7.38 from roughly A$7.56, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly softer revenue growth and profit margins, along with a modestly higher expected future P/E. They still view the shares more positively relative to consensus expectations for oil and gas prices into 2026.

STO: Future Share Momentum Will Reflect Firmer 2026 Pricing Expectations

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Santos to A$7.56 from A$7.53, reflecting slightly higher assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, as some now expect oil and gas prices in 2026 to be less weak than broader forecasts. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the upgrade alongside a A$7.30 price target as support for the revised fair value, suggesting current assumptions on revenue growth, margins and P/E are within a range some investors may find reasonable.

STO: Future Share Momentum Will Reflect Takeover Clarity And Rising Free Cash Flows

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Santos by A$0.29 to A$7.53, reflecting a slightly lower fair value and profit margin outlook, while also highlighting improving long term free cash flow prospects and a supportive valuation following the withdrawal of the XRG takeover proposal. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the withdrawal of the XRG takeover proposal as removing a key overhang, allowing the market to refocus on Santos fundamentals and intrinsic valuation support.

STO: Share Momentum Expected As Takeover Uncertainty Ends And Cash Flows Improve

Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Santos from A$7.77 to A$7.82. They highlight an improved outlook following the withdrawal of the XRG consortium’s takeover bid and expectations for increased free cash flow as major projects advance.

STO: Free Cash Flow Growth Expected As Key Projects Reach Completion

The analyst price target for Santos has increased slightly from A$7.76 to A$7.77. This reflects analysts' view that the withdrawal of a takeover proposal and expectations for improved cash flow from major projects support a higher valuation.

STO: Focus Will Shift To Project Delivery Following Takeover Withdrawal

The analyst price target for Santos has been modestly reduced from A$7.88 to A$7.76. Analysts are factoring in adjusted expectations for revenue growth and profit margins following the withdrawal of the XRG takeover proposal and continued focus on future project execution.

Barossa LNG And CCS Initiatives Will Drive Future Energy Transition

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Santos from A$8.10 to A$7.88. This reflects more cautious assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins.

Barossa LNG And CCS Initiatives Will Drive Future Energy Transition

Analysts have revised Santos' fair value estimate downward from A$8.37 to A$8.10. This change reflects updated expectations for stronger revenue growth and profit margins, along with sector valuation considerations after the XRG takeover proposal was withdrawn.

Barossa LNG And CCS Initiatives Will Drive Future Energy Transition

Analysts have lowered Santos’s price target from A$8.51 to A$8.37 primarily due to concerns over risks to the completion of XRG's acquisition proposal. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite potential risks to the completion of XRG's acquisition proposal as a reason for the downgrade and reduced price target.

Securing Long-Term LNG Agreements Will Sustain Cash Flows Beyond 2029

Analysts have revised Santos’ price target upward to A$8.58, primarily reflecting concerns over risks to the XRG acquisition proposal, which has prompted a more cautious outlook. Analyst Commentary Concern over potential risks to XRG's acquisition proposal completing, leading to a more cautious outlook and lower price target.
User avatar

Securing Long-Term LNG Agreements Will Sustain Cash Flows Beyond 2029

Santos's production is set to increase significantly with new projects, boosting revenue and lowering costs.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:STO - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20287,0501,8122,2984,23211
12/31/20277,2481,8842,4534,31011
12/31/20267,1841,9261,8643,82511
12/31/20254,9398187572,813N/A
9/30/20255,0949237262,888N/A
6/30/20255,2491,0276942,962N/A
3/31/20255,3151,1265722,906N/A
12/31/20245,3811,2244492,850N/A
9/30/20245,5071,2435252,960N/A
6/30/20245,6331,2626013,070N/A
3/31/20245,7611,3397453,164N/A
12/31/20235,8891,4168893,258N/A
9/30/20236,4401,5761,4683,654N/A
6/30/20236,9911,7352,0474,049N/A
3/31/20237,3911,9242,4494,304N/A
12/31/20227,7902,1122,8514,558N/A
9/30/20227,1151,7922,4654,013N/A
6/30/20226,4391,4712,0783,467N/A
3/31/20225,5761,0651,6242,870N/A
12/31/20214,7136581,1692,272N/A
9/30/20214,2364729461,926N/A
6/30/20213,7592867231,580N/A
3/31/20213,573-357151,528N/A
12/31/20203,387-3577061,476N/A
9/30/20203,557-1808221,655N/A
6/30/20203,727-39381,833N/A
3/31/20203,8803361,0541,940N/A
12/31/20194,0336741,1692,046N/A
9/30/20193,994794N/A2,016N/A
6/30/20193,954914N/A1,985N/A
3/31/20193,807772N/A1,782N/A
12/31/20183,660630N/A1,578N/A
9/30/20183,496440N/A1,415N/A
6/30/20183,331250N/A1,252N/A
3/31/20183,216-55N/A1,250N/A
12/31/20173,100-360N/A1,248N/A
9/30/20172,976-404N/A1,219N/A
6/30/20172,852-449N/A1,189N/A
3/31/20172,723-748N/A1,015N/A
12/31/20162,594-1,047N/A840N/A
9/30/20162,483-2,067N/A763N/A
6/30/20162,372-3,087N/A686N/A
3/31/20162,407-2,520N/A749N/A
12/31/20152,442-1,953N/A811N/A
9/30/20152,607-1,363N/A1,000N/A
6/30/20152,916-848N/A1,262N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: STO's forecast earnings growth (13.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: STO's earnings (13.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12% per year).

High Growth Earnings: STO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: STO's revenue (6.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: STO's revenue (6.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: STO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.5%).

Discover growth companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/04 21:24
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/04 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Santos Limited is covered by 19 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
NEIL BEVERIDGEBernstein
Matt ChalmersBofA Global Research