Peninsula Energy Limited

ASX:PEN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$181.7m

Peninsula Energy Valuation

Is PEN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PEN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PEN (A$0.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PEN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PEN?

Key metric: As PEN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for PEN. This is calculated by dividing PEN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is PEN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio9.6x
SalesUS$11.87m
Market CapUS$118.11m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does PEN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for PEN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
MCM MC Mining
1.1xn/aAU$59.5m
TER TerraCom
0.6xn/aAU$176.2m
ERA Energy Resources of Australia
1.2xn/aAU$44.3m
NHC New Hope
2.2x3.1%AU$4.0b
PEN Peninsula Energy
9.6x38.4%AU$181.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: PEN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does PEN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

37 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WDS Woodside Energy Group
2.4x1.5%US$30.11b
STO Santos
2.5x8.1%US$14.30b
YAL Yancoal Australia
1.2x0.4%US$5.44b
ALD Ampol
0.2x-1.6%US$4.45b
PEN 9.6xIndustry Avg. 4.6xNo. of Companies37PS020406080100+
37 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: PEN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.6x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (4.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PEN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PEN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio9.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: PEN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PEN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.055
AU$0.19
+241.5%
19.2%AU$0.24AU$0.15n/a4
Nov ’25AU$0.092
AU$0.21
+133.7%
12.1%AU$0.26AU$0.20n/a4
Oct ’25AU$0.096
AU$0.21
+123.5%
11.7%AU$0.26AU$0.20n/a4
Sep ’25AU$0.08
AU$0.21
+168.1%
11.7%AU$0.26AU$0.20n/a4
Aug ’25AU$0.10
AU$0.23
+127.5%
12.2%AU$0.26AU$0.20n/a4
Jul ’25AU$0.10
AU$0.24
+142.5%
7.9%AU$0.26AU$0.21n/a4
Jun ’25AU$0.12
AU$0.25
+110.6%
1.5%AU$0.26AU$0.25n/a3
May ’25AU$0.12
AU$0.26
+122.4%
14.4%AU$0.31AU$0.21n/a4
Apr ’25AU$0.13
AU$0.26
+105.3%
25.5%AU$0.34AU$0.18n/a3
Mar ’25AU$0.11
AU$0.26
+133.3%
25.5%AU$0.34AU$0.18n/a3
Feb ’25AU$0.13
AU$0.27
+110.3%
24.9%AU$0.34AU$0.18n/a3
Jan ’25AU$0.10
AU$0.24
+131.4%
20.2%AU$0.30AU$0.18n/a3
Dec ’24AU$0.10
AU$0.27
+161.4%
9.3%AU$0.30AU$0.25n/a2
Nov ’24AU$0.13
AU$0.26
+101.6%
12.5%AU$0.30AU$0.22AU$0.0923
Oct ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.26
+80.6%
12.5%AU$0.30AU$0.22AU$0.0963
Sep ’24AU$0.088
AU$0.26
+190.0%
16.3%AU$0.30AU$0.20AU$0.083
Aug ’24AU$0.10
AU$0.30
+182.0%
4.0%AU$0.31AU$0.28AU$0.103
Jul ’24AU$0.17
AU$0.37
+115.5%
6.9%AU$0.40AU$0.34AU$0.103
Jun ’24AU$0.17
AU$0.37
+115.0%
7.2%AU$0.40AU$0.34AU$0.123
May ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.37
+152.6%
6.9%AU$0.40AU$0.34AU$0.123
Apr ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.40
+175.6%
17.9%AU$0.50AU$0.34AU$0.133
Mar ’24AU$0.15
AU$0.40
+166.4%
17.9%AU$0.50AU$0.34AU$0.113
Feb ’24AU$0.15
AU$0.40
+158.1%
17.8%AU$0.50AU$0.34AU$0.133
Jan ’24AU$0.13
AU$0.37
+184.6%
21.8%AU$0.50AU$0.28AU$0.104
Dec ’23AU$0.13
AU$0.34
+161.5%
14.4%AU$0.40AU$0.28AU$0.103
Nov ’23AU$0.17
AU$0.35
+102.9%
14.0%AU$0.40AU$0.28AU$0.134

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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