Domino's Pizza Enterprises Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of DMP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

DMP (A$30.11) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$28.81)

Is DMP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DMP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DMP (A$30.11) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$28.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DMP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DMP?

Key metric: As DMP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DMP. This is calculated by dividing DMP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DMP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	30.1x
Earnings	AU$92.35m
Market Cap	AU$2.78b

DMP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16.7x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DMP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DMP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	24.7x
CKF Collins Foods	18x	15.2%	AU$994.4m
RFG Retail Food Group	31.4x	21.8%	AU$182.1m
CTD Corporate Travel Management	23.6x	12.2%	AU$2.0b
IEL IDP Education	25.8x	14.1%	AU$3.4b
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises	30.1x	19.5%	AU$2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DMP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the peer average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DMP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Hospitality Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DMP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the Global Hospitality industry average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DMP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DMP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	30.1x
Fair PE Ratio	28.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DMP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DMP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$30.11	AU$36.63 +21.7%	21.0%	AU$58.00	AU$25.70	n/a	15
Nov ’25	AU$33.53	AU$38.59 +15.1%	19.0%	AU$58.00	AU$25.70	n/a	15
Oct ’25	AU$34.54	AU$38.35 +11.0%	19.7%	AU$58.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Sep ’25	AU$30.10	AU$38.34 +27.4%	19.7%	AU$58.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Aug ’25	AU$32.66	AU$41.17 +26.1%	17.0%	AU$58.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Jul ’25	AU$35.89	AU$44.16 +23.0%	18.2%	AU$61.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Jun ’25	AU$38.68	AU$44.80 +15.8%	18.3%	AU$61.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
May ’25	AU$39.50	AU$45.54 +15.3%	18.9%	AU$61.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Apr ’25	AU$43.23	AU$46.16 +6.8%	18.6%	AU$61.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Mar ’25	AU$44.79	AU$46.16 +3.1%	18.6%	AU$61.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Feb ’25	AU$40.57	AU$49.16 +21.2%	20.7%	AU$68.00	AU$25.70	n/a	14
Jan ’25	AU$58.88	AU$55.64 -5.5%	15.0%	AU$68.00	AU$40.30	n/a	14
Dec ’24	AU$52.86	AU$56.32 +6.5%	15.0%	AU$68.00	AU$40.30	n/a	15
Nov ’24	AU$52.77	AU$55.89 +5.9%	15.0%	AU$68.00	AU$40.30	AU$33.53	15
Oct ’24	AU$53.31	AU$56.08 +5.2%	15.7%	AU$68.00	AU$40.30	AU$34.54	15
Sep ’24	AU$54.38	AU$56.43 +3.8%	15.3%	AU$68.00	AU$40.30	AU$30.10	15
Aug ’24	AU$48.89	AU$53.12 +8.7%	19.7%	AU$68.00	AU$40.00	AU$32.66	15
Jul ’24	AU$46.56	AU$53.13 +14.1%	19.7%	AU$68.00	AU$40.00	AU$35.89	15
Jun ’24	AU$47.92	AU$62.12 +29.6%	12.6%	AU$75.00	AU$50.00	AU$38.68	15
May ’24	AU$50.60	AU$62.14 +22.8%	13.1%	AU$75.00	AU$50.00	AU$39.50	14
Apr ’24	AU$49.85	AU$62.52 +25.4%	12.7%	AU$75.00	AU$50.00	AU$43.23	15
Mar ’24	AU$48.98	AU$62.52 +27.6%	12.7%	AU$75.00	AU$50.00	AU$44.79	15
Feb ’24	AU$74.42	AU$72.28 -2.9%	13.3%	AU$90.00	AU$60.00	AU$40.57	15
Jan ’24	AU$66.61	AU$71.75 +7.7%	13.2%	AU$90.00	AU$60.00	AU$58.88	15
Dec ’23	AU$66.38	AU$71.00 +7.0%	12.8%	AU$88.00	AU$60.00	AU$52.86	15
Nov ’23	AU$63.01	AU$78.09 +23.9%	13.5%	AU$95.00	AU$62.90	AU$52.77	15

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.