Retail Food Group Valuation

Is RFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RFG (A$0.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RFG?

Key metric: As RFG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RFG. This is calculated by dividing RFG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RFG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	31.4x
Earnings	AU$5.79m
Market Cap	AU$187.06m

RFG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	41.1x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	34.5x
CKF Collins Foods	17.8x	15.2%	AU$992.0m
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises	30.2x	19.5%	AU$2.8b
AGI Ainsworth Game Technology	45.3x	11.4%	AU$249.2m
VVA Viva Leisure	44.6x	31.5%	AU$141.9m
RFG Retail Food Group	31.4x	21.8%	AU$187.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.4x) compared to the peer average (34.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Hospitality Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.4x) compared to the Global Hospitality industry average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	31.4x
Fair PE Ratio	20.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$0.073	AU$0.10 +43.8%	4.8%	AU$0.11	AU$0.10	n/a	2
Nov ’25	AU$0.068	AU$0.11 +61.8%	7.4%	AU$0.12	AU$0.10	n/a	3
Oct ’25	AU$0.067	AU$0.11 +60.4%	7.7%	AU$0.12	AU$0.10	n/a	4
Sep ’25	AU$0.068	AU$0.11 +58.1%	7.7%	AU$0.12	AU$0.10	n/a	4
Aug ’25	AU$0.075	AU$0.11 +50.0%	11.5%	AU$0.13	AU$0.10	n/a	4
Jul ’25	AU$0.077	AU$0.11 +46.1%	11.5%	AU$0.13	AU$0.10	n/a	4
Jun ’25	AU$0.068	AU$0.11 +64.7%	12.1%	AU$0.13	AU$0.098	n/a	4
May ’25	AU$0.07	AU$0.11 +60.7%	11.5%	AU$0.13	AU$0.10	n/a	4
Apr ’25	AU$0.075	AU$0.11 +50.0%	11.5%	AU$0.13	AU$0.10	n/a	4
Mar ’25	AU$0.073	AU$0.13 +71.2%	4.0%	AU$0.13	AU$0.12	n/a	2
Feb ’25	AU$0.073	AU$0.13 +71.2%	4.0%	AU$0.13	AU$0.12	n/a	2
Jan ’25	AU$0.07	AU$0.13 +78.6%	4.0%	AU$0.13	AU$0.12	n/a	2
Dec ’24	AU$0.062	AU$0.13 +101.6%	4.0%	AU$0.13	AU$0.12	n/a	2
Aug ’24	AU$0.053	AU$0.13 +135.8%	4.0%	AU$0.13	AU$0.12	AU$0.075	2
Jul ’24	AU$0.057	AU$0.13 +119.3%	4.0%	AU$0.13	AU$0.12	AU$0.077	2
Jan ’24	AU$0.08	AU$0.083 +3.1%	45.5%	AU$0.12	AU$0.045	AU$0.07	2
Dec ’23	AU$0.071	AU$0.083 +16.2%	45.5%	AU$0.12	AU$0.045	AU$0.062	2
Nov ’23	AU$0.057	AU$0.083 +44.7%	45.5%	AU$0.12	AU$0.045	AU$0.052	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.