AU$0.94 - That's What Analysts Think Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX:TAH) Is Worth After These Results

Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 40% over the past week following Tabcorp Holdings Limited's (ASX:TAH) latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of AU$2.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Tabcorp Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of AU$0.016 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tabcorp Holdings after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tabcorp Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of AU$2.69b in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 2.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 94% to AU$0.031. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$2.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.023 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a great increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

Check out our latest analysis for Tabcorp Holdings

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 26% to AU$0.94. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Tabcorp Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$1.04 and the most bearish at AU$0.70 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Tabcorp Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.5% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 15% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.7% per year. Although Tabcorp Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Tabcorp Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tabcorp Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tabcorp Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Tabcorp Holdings' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.