Shareholders in Shine Justice (ASX:SHJ) have lost 33%, as stock drops 11% this past week

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Shine Justice Ltd (ASX:SHJ) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 40% in three years, versus a market decline of about 13%. Furthermore, it's down 12% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Since Shine Justice has shed AU$13m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

See our latest analysis for Shine Justice

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over the three years that the share price declined, Shine Justice's earnings per share (EPS) dropped significantly, falling to a loss. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Shine Justice's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Shine Justice's TSR for the last 3 years was -33%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Shine Justice provided a TSR of 4.1% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 1.8% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Shine Justice you should know about.

Shine Justice is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.