Analysts Just Shaved Their Helloworld Travel Limited (ASX:HLO) Forecasts Dramatically

Market forces rained on the parade of Helloworld Travel Limited (ASX:HLO) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the latest downgrade, Helloworld Travel's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be AU$208m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to rise 5.4% to AU$0.16. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$234m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.22 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Helloworld Travel's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for Helloworld Travel

The consensus price target fell 16% to AU$2.44, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2025 compared to the historical decline of 5.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Helloworld Travel to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Helloworld Travel. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Helloworld Travel's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Helloworld Travel going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.