Stock Analysis

Calculating The Fair Value Of Corporate Travel Management Limited (ASX:CTD)

ASX:CTD
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Key Insights

  • Corporate Travel Management's estimated fair value is AU$21.1 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of AU$18.4 suggests Corporate Travel Management is trading close to its fair value
  • Analyst price target for CTD is AU$22.43 which is 6.2% above our fair value estimate

Does the February share price for Corporate Travel Management Limited (ASX:CTD) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Corporate Travel Management

Is Corporate Travel Management Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$100.9m AU$173.2m AU$176.5m AU$168.8m AU$203.3m AU$211.0m AU$217.7m AU$223.8m AU$229.4m AU$234.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x5 Analyst x5 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 3.77% Est @ 3.20% Est @ 2.80% Est @ 2.52% Est @ 2.33%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9% AU$93.5 AU$149 AU$140 AU$124 AU$139 AU$134 AU$128 AU$122 AU$116 AU$110

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.3b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$235m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.9%– 1.9%) = AU$4.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$4.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= AU$1.8b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$3.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$18.4, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
ASX:CTD Discounted Cash Flow February 1st 2023

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Corporate Travel Management as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.005. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Corporate Travel Management

Strength
  • Currently debt free.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
  • Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.
Threat
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Corporate Travel Management, there are three pertinent items you should assess:

  1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Corporate Travel Management has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does CTD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Corporate Travel Management is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.