Stock Analysis

Is Now The Time To Put Metcash (ASX:MTS) On Your Watchlist?

ASX:MTS
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It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story even if these companies are loss-making. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Metcash (ASX:MTS), which has not only revenues, but also profits. Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.

Check out our latest analysis for Metcash

How Quickly Is Metcash Increasing Earnings Per Share?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. It certainly is nice to see that Metcash has managed to grow EPS by 31% per year over three years. If the company can sustain that sort of growth, we'd expect shareholders to come away satisfied.

One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. Metcash maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 4.2% to AU$16b. That's encouraging news for the company!

You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:MTS Earnings and Revenue History November 7th 2023

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Metcash.

Are Metcash Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Investors are always searching for a vote of confidence in the companies they hold and insider buying is one of the key indicators for optimism on the market. Because often, the purchase of stock is a sign that the buyer views it as undervalued. However, small purchases are not always indicative of conviction, and insiders don't always get it right.

It's good to see Metcash insiders walking the walk, by spending AU$452k on shares in just twelve months. This, combined with the lack of sales from insiders, should be a great signal for shareholders in what's to come. We also note that it was the Independent Non-Executive Chairman, Peter Birtles, who made the biggest single acquisition, paying AU$285k for shares at about AU$3.91 each.

Should You Add Metcash To Your Watchlist?

For growth investors, Metcash's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. The growth rate should be enticing enough to consider researching the company, and the insider buying is a great added bonus. So on this analysis, Metcash is probably worth spending some time on. Still, you should learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Metcash.

The good news is that Metcash is not the only growth stock with insider buying. Here's a list of them... with insider buying in the last three months!

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Metcash is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.