Endeavour Group Limited's (ASX:EDV) Financials Are Too Obscure To Link With Current Share Price Momentum: What's In Store For the Stock?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 17, 2022
ASX:EDV
Source: Shutterstock

Endeavour Group (ASX:EDV) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 22% over the last three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Endeavour Group's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Endeavour Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Endeavour Group is:

14% = AU$487m ÷ AU$3.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2022).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.14 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Endeavour Group's Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

To begin with, Endeavour Group seems to have a respectable ROE. Yet, the fact that the company's ROE is lower than the industry average of 23% does temper our expectations. Moreover, Endeavour Group's net income shrunk at a rate of 3.6%over the past five years. Not to forget, the company does have a high ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So there might be other reasons for the earnings to shrink. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

So, as a next step, we compared Endeavour Group's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 0.8% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
ASX:EDV Past Earnings Growth May 17th 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for EDV? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Endeavour Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 51% (implying that 49% of the profits are retained), most of Endeavour Group's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.

Additionally, Endeavour Group started paying a dividend only recently. So it looks like the management may have perceived that shareholders favor dividends even though earnings have been in decline. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 72% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Endeavour Group can be open to many interpretations. On the one hand, the company does have a decent rate of return, however, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing and as discussed earlier, the low retained earnings is hampering the growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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