These 4 Measures Indicate That Coles Group (ASX:COL) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Coles Group Limited (ASX:COL) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Coles Group

What Is Coles Group's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Coles Group had AU$1.10b of debt in June 2022, down from AU$1.14b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of AU$589.0m, its net debt is less, at about AU$506.0m.

How Strong Is Coles Group's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Coles Group had liabilities of AU$6.42b due within 12 months, and liabilities of AU$9.30b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$589.0m as well as receivables valued at AU$512.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total AU$14.6b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of AU$22.1b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Coles Group's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

While Coles Group's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.22 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.7 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Importantly Coles Group's EBIT was essentially flat over the last twelve months. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Coles Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Coles Group generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 91% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Our View

Coles Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real positive on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. Having said that, its level of total liabilities somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Coles Group is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Coles Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.