ASX:YPB

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

YPB Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, sells, markets, and develops anti-counterfeiting, anti-theft, product authentication, and consumer engagement solutions to brand owners.

Rewards

Trading at 94.4% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 117.63% per year

Risk Analysis

Has less than 1 year of cash runway

Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year

Does not have a meaningful market cap (A$8M)

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

+ 1 more risk


Snowflake Analysis

High growth potential and fair value.

Share Price & News

How has YPB Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: YPB's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-11.1%

YPB

1.7%

AU Professional Services

2.0%

AU Market


1 Year Return

-76.5%

YPB

30.3%

AU Professional Services

19.8%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: YPB underperformed the Australian Professional Services industry which returned 29.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: YPB underperformed the Australian Market which returned 19.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

YPBIndustryMarket
7 Day-11.1%1.7%2.0%
30 Day-20.0%1.4%3.5%
90 Day-33.3%8.1%5.8%
1 Year-76.5%-76.5%34.1%30.3%25.2%19.8%
3 Year-98.1%-98.1%59.9%47.0%39.6%20.9%
5 Year-98.7%-98.7%72.2%48.2%61.8%25.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is YPB Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is YPB Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: YPB (A$0) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YPB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: YPB is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Professional Services industry average.

PE vs Market: YPB is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Australian market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate YPB's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: YPB is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.9x) compared to the AU Professional Services industry average (2.1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is YPB Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

117.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: YPB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: YPB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: YPB's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: YPB's revenue (85.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (3.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: YPB's revenue (85.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if YPB's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has YPB Group performed over the past 5 years?

-1.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: YPB is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: YPB is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: YPB is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -1.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare YPB's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: YPB is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Professional Services industry (22.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: YPB has a negative Return on Equity (-138.88%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is YPB Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: YPB's short term assets (A$731.0K) do not cover its short term liabilities (A$4.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: YPB's short term assets (A$731.0K) exceed its long term liabilities (A$132.0K).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: YPB's debt to equity ratio (41.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: YPB's debt to equity ratio has increased from 26.3% to 41.9% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: YPB has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: YPB's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.4x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: YPB has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: YPB has less than a year of cash runway if free cash flow continues to grow at historical rates of 15% each year.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is YPB Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

100.00%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%2.3%markettop25%5.4%industryaverage2.5%forecastin3Years100.0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate YPB's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate YPB's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if YPB's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if YPB's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of YPB's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Australian market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of YPB Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

3.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

John Houston 0

0yrs

Tenure

AU$328,367

Compensation

Mr. John Houston served as Chief Executive Officer of YPB Group Ltd from July 31, 2014 to March 2016. Mr. Houston served as President of DOCOMO interTouch Pte Ltd. and served as its Chief Executive Officer ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD0.00) is below average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD262.68K).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

3.8yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: YPB's management team is considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

4.7yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Board: YPB's board of directors are considered experienced (4.7 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 82.1%.


Management Team

  • John Houston

    Executive Chairman & CEO

    • Compensation: AU$328.37k
  • Greg O'Shea

    Chief Operating Officer

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
    • Compensation: AU$289.38k
  • Ralph Davis

    President of Print Solutions

    • Tenure: 4.3yrs
    • Compensation: AU$78.91k
  • Tim Merchant

    Chief Technical Officer

    • Tenure: 4.7yrs
    • Compensation: AU$137.12k
  • Sheldon Brady

    MD - Australia & New Zealand

    • Adrian Tan

      Group Chief Financial Officer

      • Tenure: 2.1yrs
    • Sebastian Andre

      Company Secretary

      • Tenure: 0.6yrs

    Board Members

    • John Houston

      Executive Chairman & CEO

      • Compensation: AU$328.37k
    • George Su

      Non-Executive Director

      • Tenure: 5.5yrs
      • Compensation: AU$40.00k
    • Gerard Eakin

      Non-Executive Director

      • Tenure: 3.8yrs
      • Compensation: AU$200.00k
    • Philip Wade

      Director

      • Tenure: 0.6yrs

    Company Information

    YPB Group Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


    Key Information

    • Name: YPB Group Limited
    • Ticker: YPB
    • Exchange: ASX
    • Founded: 2011
    • Industry: Research and Consulting Services
    • Sector: Commercial Services
    • Market Cap: AU$7.625m
    • Shares outstanding: 1.69b
    • Website: https://www.ypbsystems.com

    Number of Employees


    Location

    • YPB Group Limited
    • 66 Goulburn Street
    • Level 29
    • Sydney
    • New South Wales
    • 2000
    • Australia

    Listings

    TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
    YPBASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDAug 2014
    YPBCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDAug 2014

    Biography

    YPB Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, sells, markets, and develops anti-counterfeiting, anti-theft, product authentication, and consumer engagement solutions to brand owners. It offers digital engagement platform, a cloud-based customer digital engagement and analytics platform that enables brands to form a relationship with customers; manufactures and sells covert forensic products that are used for tracing a product or packaging during or after the manufacturing process, which is detectable using the company’s proprietary scanner; and forensic laboratory services for the examination of counterfeit products. The company also provides security consulting services to governments, corporations, and intellectual property owners for the deterrence of counterfeiting, grey markets, product diversions, and fraud activities; and retail anti-theft and labeling solutions to mainstream retailers, boutiques, and exporters to protect against theft. It operates in Australia, the Peoples Republic of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the United States. YPB Group Limited was founded in 2011 and is based in Sydney, Australia. 


    Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

    All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
    DataLast Updated (UTC time)
    Company Analysis2020/01/18 10:31
    End of Day Share Price2020/01/17 00:00
    Earnings2019/06/30
    Annual Earnings2018/12/31


    Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.