Duratec Limited Just Beat EPS By 17%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest half-yearly earnings release from Duratec Limited (ASX:DUR), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were AU$287m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of AU$0.05 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 17%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Duratec

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Duratec's four analysts is for revenues of AU$620.0m in 2025. This would reflect a solid 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 17% to AU$0.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$620.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.10 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 10% to AU$1.88despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Duratec's earnings by assigning a price premium. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Duratec analyst has a price target of AU$1.95 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$1.72. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Duratec's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 27% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 25% annual growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Duratec is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Duratec analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.