Why DroneShield (ASX:DRO) Is Up 15.8% After Ukraine Deal and ASX 200 Inclusion

• On September 19, 2025, Critical Infrastructure Technologies Ltd announced it had signed a confidentiality agreement with DroneShield Limited to develop and integrate Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems for Ukraine's Nexus 20 defense platform, alongside new collaborations with major telecom partners.
• This move coincided with DroneShield's addition to the S&P/ASX 200 Index and the expansion of its U.S. R&D operations, highlighting increased international recognition and growing demand for advanced counter-drone solutions.
• We'll explore how DroneShield's addition to the ASX 200 and its enhanced U.S. R&D capabilities could influence its investment outlook.

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DroneShield Investment Narrative Recap

To back DroneShield as a shareholder, you’ll need confidence in sustained demand for counter-drone security, underpinned by rising global defense needs and regulatory changes. The September agreement to support Ukraine and partnerships with telecom giants could accelerate short-term revenue momentum by securing new contracts. However, the most significant risk remains the company’s dependence on sizeable government deals, which can be unpredictable; the recent news appears to provide incremental support but does not materially eliminate that volatility.

The September 19 announcement of DroneShield’s addition to the S&P/ASX 200 Index stands out as especially relevant. This milestone increases the company’s visibility to institutional investors and could boost short-term liquidity, complementing the broader catalyst of surging adoption of counter-drone solutions across global defense markets.

By contrast, investors should be aware of the unpredictable timing of large government contracts and the potential for...

Read the full narrative on DroneShield (it's free!)

DroneShield's narrative projects A$359.8 million revenue and A$96.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 49.7% yearly revenue growth and an A$90.5 million earnings increase from A$5.6 million today.

Uncover how DroneShield's forecasts yield a A$3.65 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Forty-one members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate DroneShield’s fair value anywhere from A$0.41 to A$7.50 per share. While many anticipate rapid revenue growth, the timing and size of government contracts could shape future results and affect the path to profitability, so consider exploring several viewpoints.

Explore 41 other fair value estimates on DroneShield - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own DroneShield Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your DroneShield research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free DroneShield research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate DroneShield's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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