Some AJ Lucas Group Shareholders Have Taken A Painful 86% Share Price Drop

We’re definitely into long term investing, but some companies are simply bad investments over any time frame. We don’t wish catastrophic capital loss on anyone. Anyone who held AJ Lucas Group Limited (ASX:AJL) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 86% in that time. And it’s not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 62% in the last year. Furthermore, it’s down 54% in about a quarter. That’s not much fun for holders. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don’t have to lose the lesson.

Check out our latest analysis for AJ Lucas Group

Given that AJ Lucas Group didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That’s because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over half a decade AJ Lucas Group reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 15% for each year. That’s definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. So it’s not that strange that the share price dropped 33% per year in that period. We don’t think this is a particularly promising picture. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor – but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.

The graphic below shows how revenue and earnings have changed as management guided the business forward. If you want to see cashflow, you can click on the chart.

ASX:AJL Income Statement, March 5th 2019
ASX:AJL Income Statement, March 5th 2019

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there’s a difference between AJ Lucas Group’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we’ve covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) and any discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. AJ Lucas Group hasn’t been paying dividends, but its TSR of -84% exceeds its share price return of -86%, implying it has raised capital at a discount, which is deemed to provide value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 11% in the last year, AJ Lucas Group shareholders lost 62%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 31% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.