Heartland Group Holdings Limited

CHIA:HGH Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$833.3m

Heartland Group Holdings Valuation

Is HGH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HGH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HGH (A$0.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HGH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HGH?

Key metric: As HGH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HGH. This is calculated by dividing HGH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HGH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.4x
EarningsNZ$74.55m
Market CapNZ$928.05m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HGH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HGH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.2x
KSL Kina Securities
7.8x19.3%AU$305.2m
BFL BSP Financial Group
8xn/aAU$3.0b
JDO Judo Capital Holdings
32.1x26.3%AU$2.2b
MYS MyState
12.8x11.9%AU$451.5m
HGH Heartland Group Holdings
12.4x17.8%AU$928.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HGH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x) compared to the peer average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HGH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Banks Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HGH 12.4xIndustry Avg. 10.0xNo. of Companies164PE0612182430+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HGH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x) compared to the Global Banks industry average (10x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HGH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HGH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.4x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HGH's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HGH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.90
AU$1.21
+35.2%
20.1%AU$1.55AU$1.01n/a3
Nov ’25AU$0.93
AU$1.21
+30.8%
20.1%AU$1.55AU$1.01n/a3
Oct ’25n/a
AU$1.21
0%
20.1%AU$1.55AU$1.01n/a3
Sep ’25AU$0.96
AU$1.21
+25.4%
20.1%AU$1.55AU$1.01n/a3
Aug ’25AU$0.99
AU$1.26
+26.9%
18.6%AU$1.59AU$1.04n/a3
Jul ’25AU$0.91
AU$1.26
+38.4%
18.6%AU$1.59AU$1.04n/a3
Jun ’25AU$0.94
AU$1.26
+34.4%
18.6%AU$1.59AU$1.04n/a3
May ’25AU$0.97
AU$1.24
+28.4%
18.6%AU$1.56AU$1.03n/a3
Apr ’25AU$1.16
AU$1.38
+19.3%
21.6%AU$1.79AU$1.08n/a3
Mar ’25AU$1.14
AU$1.39
+22.4%
21.3%AU$1.79AU$1.09n/a3
Feb ’25AU$1.30
AU$1.67
+28.8%
15.5%AU$2.03AU$1.42n/a3
Jan ’25AU$1.35
AU$1.67
+24.1%
15.5%AU$2.03AU$1.42n/a3
Dec ’24n/a
AU$1.76
0%
11.1%AU$2.02AU$1.55n/a3
Nov ’24AU$1.45
AU$1.89
+31.0%
6.9%AU$2.06AU$1.74AU$0.933
Oct ’24AU$1.64
AU$1.90
+16.0%
4.3%AU$2.01AU$1.84n/a3
Sep ’24AU$1.57
AU$1.90
+21.1%
4.3%AU$2.02AU$1.84AU$0.963
Aug ’24n/a
AU$1.96
0%
5.6%AU$2.11AU$1.86AU$0.993
Jul ’24n/a
AU$1.94
0%
5.6%AU$2.10AU$1.85AU$0.913
Jun ’24AU$1.46
AU$1.94
+33.2%
5.6%AU$2.10AU$1.85AU$0.943
May ’24AU$1.46
AU$1.97
+34.6%
5.2%AU$2.10AU$1.85AU$0.973
Apr ’24n/a
AU$1.97
0%
5.2%AU$2.10AU$1.85AU$1.163
Mar ’24n/a
AU$1.97
0%
4.5%AU$2.09AU$1.87AU$1.143
Feb ’24AU$1.71
AU$1.94
+13.3%
4.2%AU$2.05AU$1.86AU$1.303
Jan ’24AU$1.70
AU$1.95
+15.0%
6.7%AU$2.11AU$1.79AU$1.353
Dec ’23AU$1.68
AU$1.90
+12.9%
6.7%AU$2.05AU$1.74n/a3
Nov ’23AU$1.59
AU$1.92
+21.3%
4.2%AU$2.03AU$1.84AU$1.453

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Fremantle Community Financial Services

AU$294.7k

Engages in the operation of a branch of Bendigo Bank and Adelaide Bank pursuant to a franchise agreement with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited in Western Australia.

FCF

AU$0.40

7D

0%

1Y

n/a

East Gosford & Districts Financial Services

AU$402.9k

Provides community banking services under management rights to operate a franchised branch of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited.

EGF

AU$0.41

7D

0%

1Y

n/a

Sunshine Coast Community Financial Services

AU$1.3m

Operates as a franchisee of Bendigo Bank that provides banking, and financial products and services to individuals, businesses, and organizations in Australia.

SSC

AU$0.77

7D

0%

1Y

n/a