Heartland Group Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of HGH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HGH (A$0.91) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$1.76)

Is HGH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HGH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HGH (A$0.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HGH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HGH?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for HGH. This is calculated by dividing HGH's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is HGH's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	NZ$984.29m

HGH key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HGH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HGH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.5x
KSL Kina Securities	7.8x	18.6%	AU$296.6m
BFL BSP Financial Group	8.1x	n/a	AU$3.0b
JDO Judo Capital Holdings	30.6x	26.4%	AU$2.1b
MYS MyState	11.8x	7.6%	AU$414.9m
HGH Heartland Group Holdings	13.2x	17.8%	AU$984.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HGH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HGH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Banks Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	3.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	3.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HGH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the Global Banks industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HGH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HGH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.2x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HGH's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HGH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$0.91	AU$1.21 +32.9%	20.1%	AU$1.55	AU$1.01	n/a	3
Oct ’25	n/a	AU$1.21 0%	20.1%	AU$1.55	AU$1.01	n/a	3
Sep ’25	AU$0.96	AU$1.21 +25.4%	20.1%	AU$1.55	AU$1.01	n/a	3
Aug ’25	AU$0.99	AU$1.26 +26.9%	18.6%	AU$1.59	AU$1.04	n/a	3
Jul ’25	AU$0.91	AU$1.26 +38.4%	18.6%	AU$1.59	AU$1.04	n/a	3
Jun ’25	AU$0.94	AU$1.26 +34.4%	18.6%	AU$1.59	AU$1.04	n/a	3
May ’25	AU$0.97	AU$1.24 +28.4%	18.6%	AU$1.56	AU$1.03	n/a	3
Apr ’25	AU$1.16	AU$1.38 +19.3%	21.6%	AU$1.79	AU$1.08	n/a	3
Mar ’25	AU$1.14	AU$1.39 +22.4%	21.3%	AU$1.79	AU$1.09	n/a	3
Feb ’25	AU$1.30	AU$1.67 +28.8%	15.5%	AU$2.03	AU$1.42	n/a	3
Jan ’25	AU$1.35	AU$1.67 +24.1%	15.5%	AU$2.03	AU$1.42	n/a	3
Dec ’24	n/a	AU$1.76 0%	11.1%	AU$2.02	AU$1.55	n/a	3
Nov ’24	AU$1.45	AU$1.89 +31.0%	6.9%	AU$2.06	AU$1.74	n/a	3
Oct ’24	AU$1.64	AU$1.90 +16.0%	4.3%	AU$2.01	AU$1.84	n/a	3
Sep ’24	AU$1.57	AU$1.90 +21.1%	4.3%	AU$2.02	AU$1.84	AU$0.96	3
Aug ’24	n/a	AU$1.96 0%	5.6%	AU$2.11	AU$1.86	AU$0.99	3
Jul ’24	n/a	AU$1.94 0%	5.6%	AU$2.10	AU$1.85	AU$0.91	3
Jun ’24	AU$1.46	AU$1.94 +33.2%	5.6%	AU$2.10	AU$1.85	AU$0.94	3
May ’24	AU$1.46	AU$1.97 +34.6%	5.2%	AU$2.10	AU$1.85	AU$0.97	3
Apr ’24	n/a	AU$1.97 0%	5.2%	AU$2.10	AU$1.85	AU$1.16	3
Mar ’24	n/a	AU$1.97 0%	4.5%	AU$2.09	AU$1.87	AU$1.14	3
Feb ’24	AU$1.71	AU$1.94 +13.3%	4.2%	AU$2.05	AU$1.86	AU$1.30	3
Jan ’24	AU$1.70	AU$1.95 +15.0%	6.7%	AU$2.11	AU$1.79	AU$1.35	3
Dec ’23	AU$1.68	AU$1.90 +12.9%	6.7%	AU$2.05	AU$1.74	n/a	3
Nov ’23	AU$1.59	AU$1.92 +21.3%	4.2%	AU$2.03	AU$1.84	AU$1.45	3
Oct ’23	AU$1.50	AU$1.90 +26.4%	4.2%	AU$2.01	AU$1.82	AU$1.64	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.