Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, EVN AG (VIE:EVN) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does EVN Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2022 EVN had €1.46b of debt, an increase on €1.21b, over one year. However, it also had €603.6m in cash, and so its net debt is €851.7m.
How Strong Is EVN's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that EVN had liabilities of €1.64b due within 12 months and liabilities of €3.22b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €603.6m in cash and €871.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €3.38b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €3.89b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on EVN's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
We'd say that EVN's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 2.1), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 10.8 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Shareholders should be aware that EVN's EBIT was down 58% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if EVN can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, EVN's free cash flow amounted to 39% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say EVN's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that EVN is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making EVN stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for EVN you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About WBAG:EVN
EVN
Provides energy and environmental services for private and business customers, and municipalities.
Undervalued with solid track record and pays a dividend.