Vonovia SE

WBAG:VNA Stock Report

Market Cap: €23.9b

Vonovia Valuation

Is VNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VNA (€29) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€29.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VNA is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VNA?

Key metric: As VNA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for VNA. This is calculated by dividing VNA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is VNA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.8x
Sales€6.22b
Market Cap€23.89b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does VNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for VNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.6x
CAI CA Immobilien Anlagen
6.9x-5.8%€2.2b
IIA IMMOFINANZ
2.7x3.9%€2.1b
SPI S IMMO
4x0.4%€1.6b
ATH Athos Immobilien
8.7xn/a€70.5m
VNA Vonovia
3.8x-12.3%€23.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: VNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.8x) compared to the peer average (5.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does VNA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Real Estate Industry?

64 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VNA 3.8xIndustry Avg. 4.9xNo. of Companies64PS03.26.49.612.816+
64 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: VNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.8x) compared to the European Real Estate industry average (4.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VNA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.8x
Fair PS Ratio3.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: VNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€29.00
€36.29
+25.1%
18.1%€52.80€23.00n/a18
Nov ’25€30.23
€36.18
+19.7%
17.9%€52.80€23.00n/a18
Oct ’25€33.46
€35.08
+4.8%
20.7%€52.80€20.00n/a18
Sep ’25€31.15
€33.63
+8.0%
21.9%€52.80€20.00n/a18
Aug ’25€29.10
€32.11
+10.3%
17.2%€42.30€20.00n/a17
Jul ’25€26.99
€32.84
+21.7%
21.0%€51.10€20.00n/a18
Jun ’25€28.47
€32.56
+14.4%
21.1%€51.10€20.00n/a18
May ’25€26.15
€32.23
+23.2%
20.8%€51.10€20.00n/a18
Apr ’25€27.45
€32.18
+17.2%
21.7%€51.10€20.00n/a18
Mar ’25€26.04
€32.55
+25.0%
21.7%€51.10€19.00n/a18
Feb ’25€28.52
€32.52
+14.0%
22.4%€51.10€19.00n/a17
Jan ’25€28.82
€30.55
+6.0%
24.4%€51.10€19.00n/a17
Dec ’24€26.55
€29.18
+9.9%
28.3%€51.10€17.25n/a16
Nov ’24€21.90
€29.40
+34.2%
27.9%€51.10€17.25€30.2316
Oct ’24€22.88
€29.48
+28.8%
28.1%€51.10€17.25€33.4616
Sep ’24€21.91
€28.98
+32.3%
29.0%€51.10€17.25€31.1516
Aug ’24€20.91
€30.46
+45.7%
40.0%€70.60€17.25€29.1016
Jul ’24€17.94
€30.98
+72.7%
38.1%€70.60€18.00€26.9916
Jun ’24€17.00
€31.21
+83.7%
38.0%€70.60€18.00€28.4716
May ’24€19.65
€31.27
+59.1%
39.4%€70.60€14.63€26.1517
Apr ’24€17.28
€31.65
+83.2%
38.9%€70.60€14.63€27.4517
Mar ’24€22.49
€34.37
+52.8%
33.5%€70.60€14.63€26.0417
Feb ’24€25.94
€34.37
+32.5%
33.5%€70.60€14.63€28.5217
Jan ’24€21.97
€35.90
+63.4%
32.0%€70.60€14.63€28.8217
Dec ’23€23.32
€36.97
+58.5%
31.9%€70.60€14.63€26.5517
Nov ’23€23.02
€38.33
+66.5%
30.4%€70.60€14.63€21.9017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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