Spotify Technology S.A.

WBAG:SPOT Stock Report

Market Cap: €88.8b

Spotify Technology Valuation

Is SPOT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPOT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPOT (€432.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€501.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPOT is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPOT?

Key metric: As SPOT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPOT. This is calculated by dividing SPOT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPOT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio126.7x
Earnings€701.00m
Market Cap€88.82b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPOT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average50.7x
UMG Universal Music Group
28.9x6.5%€44.7b
DIS Walt Disney
40.4x19.6%US$202.0b
FWON.K Formula One Group
84.1x18.0%US$23.1b
NFLX Netflix
49.5x15.3%US$384.9b
SPOT Spotify Technology
126.7x29.7%€92.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (126.7x) compared to the peer average (50.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SPOT 126.7xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (126.7x) compared to the European Entertainment industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPOT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPOT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio126.7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SPOT's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPOT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€432.90
€458.42
+5.9%
14.8%€582.96€224.05n/a35
Dec ’25€450.40
€452.19
+0.4%
14.4%€582.96€224.05n/a34
Nov ’25€357.30
€369.87
+3.5%
13.3%€457.88€224.05n/a34
Oct ’25€334.50
€357.34
+6.8%
13.5%€457.88€224.05n/a35
Sep ’25€305.40
€357.70
+17.1%
13.1%€423.75€224.05n/a33
Aug ’25€314.80
€355.69
+13.0%
13.1%€423.75€225.67n/a33
Jul ’25€290.70
€322.19
+10.8%
13.7%€374.52€196.62n/a31
Jun ’25€269.90
€317.31
+17.6%
14.2%€373.84€196.62n/a32
May ’25€268.55
€311.72
+16.1%
15.7%€373.84€196.62n/a33
Apr ’25€242.00
€249.52
+3.1%
14.2%€307.07€151.87n/a33
Mar ’25€240.00
€245.99
+2.5%
13.6%€307.07€151.87n/a32
Feb ’25€201.50
€202.67
+0.6%
14.9%€279.24€151.87n/a30
Jan ’25€170.80
€193.16
+13.1%
15.4%€279.24€138.37n/a30
Dec ’24€167.80
€174.73
+4.1%
13.0%€236.10€126.43€450.4029
Nov ’24€158.00
€172.09
+8.9%
15.0%€236.10€99.57€357.3030
Oct ’24€147.60
€157.31
+6.6%
15.2%€228.65€99.57€334.5030
Sep ’24€145.60
€154.29
+6.0%
15.5%€228.65€99.57€305.4031
Aug ’24€138.80
€154.86
+11.6%
15.2%€226.30€98.44€314.8032
Jul ’24€146.60
€146.69
+0.06%
13.1%€174.21€98.59€290.7031
Jun ’24€141.00
€143.45
+1.7%
12.7%€168.44€98.59€269.9030
May ’24€119.80
€138.09
+15.3%
14.5%€168.44€83.61€268.5530
Apr ’24€122.46
€125.80
+2.7%
17.3%€175.10€83.61€242.0029
Mar ’24€109.46
€122.98
+12.3%
17.8%€170.33€76.02€240.0029
Feb ’24€103.62
€116.55
+12.5%
16.1%€170.33€76.02€201.5029
Jan ’24€73.81
€117.31
+58.9%
18.2%€173.83€86.42€170.8029
Dec ’23n/a
€118.36
0%
18.4%€173.83€86.42€167.8029

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 11:25
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 67 analysts. 34 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
William Noel MilnerArete Research Services LLP
Samuel LourenszArete Research Services LLP