Northrop Grumman Corporation

WBAG:NOCO Stock Report

Market Cap: €68.0b

Northrop Grumman Valuation

Is NOCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€488.53
Fair Value
4.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
23
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NOCO (€467.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€488.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOCO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOCO?

Key metric: As NOCO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOCO. This is calculated by dividing NOCO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOCO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.9x
EarningsUS$4.17b
Market CapUS$70.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.3x
FACC FACC
15.4x43.3%€325.1m
GD General Dynamics
18.4x7.6%US$69.3b
TDG TransDigm Group
46x16.4%US$75.8b
RR. Rolls-Royce Holdings
21.5x2.4%UK£50.3b
NOCO Northrop Grumman
16.9x2.1%€70.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (26.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Aerospace & Defense Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NOCO 16.9xIndustry Avg. 25.0xNo. of Companies9PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the European Aerospace & Defense industry average (25.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.9x
Fair PE Ratio14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€467.10
€534.07
+14.3%
7.9%€586.73€411.87n/a23
Jan ’26€449.70
€540.47
+20.2%
8.0%€620.17€432.10n/a23
Dec ’25€462.80
€540.43
+16.8%
7.5%€613.74€427.62n/a23
Nov ’25€469.30
€519.75
+10.8%
8.3%€594.45€414.18n/a22
Oct ’25€495.50
€473.11
-4.5%
10.0%€554.69€359.55n/a22
Sep ’25€470.10
€476.41
+1.3%
9.4%€554.12€364.53n/a22
Aug ’25€450.50
€481.28
+6.8%
9.5%€559.63€368.15n/a21
Jul ’25€405.80
€466.74
+15.0%
10.5%€552.26€368.79n/a22
Jun ’25€414.30
€465.72
+12.4%
10.3%€541.65€366.66n/a21
May ’25€453.30
€466.44
+2.9%
10.3%€545.63€369.35n/a22
Apr ’25€443.70
€448.44
+1.1%
11.4%€567.52€355.28n/a22
Mar ’25€421.40
€448.68
+6.5%
11.6%€567.03€354.97n/a22
Feb ’25€409.50
€450.82
+10.1%
11.6%€567.83€355.47€467.7022
Jan ’25€421.70
€455.83
+8.1%
11.1%€563.34€349.91€449.7022
Dec ’24€440.80
€470.13
+6.7%
11.1%€575.03€357.17€462.8021
Nov ’24€444.90
€475.01
+6.8%
11.1%€581.11€360.95€469.3021
Oct ’24€417.30
€470.86
+12.8%
11.5%€585.42€365.53€495.5020
Sep ’24€404.10
€456.40
+12.9%
11.4%€564.88€352.70€470.1019
Aug ’24€408.60
€454.13
+11.1%
11.3%€559.28€349.21€450.5019
Jul ’24€415.80
€461.65
+11.0%
13.3%€602.67€353.32€405.8019
Jun ’24€408.00
€470.07
+15.2%
13.4%€612.88€359.31€414.3019
May ’24€414.80
€464.59
+12.0%
13.0%€594.41€348.48€453.3019
Apr ’24€424.80
€474.68
+11.7%
13.4%€608.76€341.09€443.7019
Mar ’24€433.25
€475.68
+9.8%
13.8%€610.53€342.08€421.4018
Feb ’24€408.10
€470.17
+15.2%
14.0%€596.25€334.08€409.5018
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 23 Analysts
€526.52
Fair Value
11.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
23
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/04 10:54
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/04 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Northrop Grumman Corporation is covered by 43 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
Peter ArmentBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research