Northrop Grumman Corporation

WBAG:NOCO Stock Report

Market Cap: €67.5b

Northrop Grumman Valuation

Is NOCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NOCO (€463.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€671.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOCO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOCO?

Key metric: As NOCO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOCO. This is calculated by dividing NOCO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOCO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30x
EarningsUS$2.38b
Market CapUS$71.26b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.8x
FACC FACC
13.3x43.3%€279.8m
GD General Dynamics
21.3x9.2%US$77.4b
TDG TransDigm Group
47.4x17.3%US$71.0b
BA. BAE Systems
21x7.7%UK£38.6b
NOCO Northrop Grumman
30x12.1%€71.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the peer average (25.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Aerospace & Defense Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NOCO 30.0xIndustry Avg. 24.6xNo. of Companies9PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the European Aerospace & Defense industry average (24.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30x
Fair PE Ratio17.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€463.30
€539.35
+16.4%
7.7%€613.74€427.62n/a23
Nov ’25€469.30
€516.89
+10.1%
8.3%€591.17€411.89n/a22
Oct ’25€495.50
€473.11
-4.5%
10.0%€554.69€359.55n/a22
Sep ’25€470.10
€476.41
+1.3%
9.4%€554.12€364.53n/a22
Aug ’25€450.50
€481.28
+6.8%
9.5%€559.63€368.15n/a21
Jul ’25€405.80
€466.74
+15.0%
10.5%€552.26€368.79n/a22
Jun ’25€414.30
€465.72
+12.4%
10.3%€541.65€366.66n/a21
May ’25€453.30
€466.44
+2.9%
10.3%€545.63€369.35n/a22
Apr ’25€443.70
€448.44
+1.1%
11.4%€567.52€355.28n/a22
Mar ’25€421.40
€448.68
+6.5%
11.6%€567.03€354.97n/a22
Feb ’25€409.50
€450.82
+10.1%
11.6%€567.83€355.47n/a22
Jan ’25€421.70
€455.83
+8.1%
11.1%€563.34€349.91n/a22
Dec ’24€440.80
€470.13
+6.7%
11.1%€575.03€357.17n/a21
Nov ’24€444.90
€475.01
+6.8%
11.1%€581.11€360.95€469.3021
Oct ’24€417.30
€470.86
+12.8%
11.5%€585.42€365.53€495.5020
Sep ’24€404.10
€456.40
+12.9%
11.4%€564.88€352.70€470.1019
Aug ’24€408.60
€454.13
+11.1%
11.3%€559.28€349.21€450.5019
Jul ’24€415.80
€461.65
+11.0%
13.3%€602.67€353.32€405.8019
Jun ’24€408.00
€470.07
+15.2%
13.4%€612.88€359.31€414.3019
May ’24€414.80
€464.59
+12.0%
13.0%€594.41€348.48€453.3019
Apr ’24€424.80
€474.68
+11.7%
13.4%€608.76€341.09€443.7019
Mar ’24€433.25
€475.68
+9.8%
13.8%€610.53€342.08€421.4018
Feb ’24€408.10
€470.17
+15.2%
14.0%€596.25€334.08€409.5018
Jan ’24€507.90
€526.97
+3.8%
12.5%€658.77€346.32€421.7019
Dec ’23€502.30
€530.73
+5.7%
12.8%€672.28€353.43€440.8018
Nov ’23€546.00
€544.17
-0.3%
13.1%€708.68€372.56€444.9018

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

KION GROUP

€4.3b

Provides industrial trucks and supply chain solutions worldwide.

KGX

€32.66

7D

1.8%

1Y

-2.3%

INDUS Holding

€553.3m

A private equity firm specializing in mergers and acquisitions and corporate spin-offs.

INH

€21.45

7D

0.7%

1Y

3.9%

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

€275.1m

Manufactures, sells, and deals in printing presses and other print media industry products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas.

HDD

€0.90

7D

-1.8%

1Y

-28.5%