Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

WBAG:ISP Stock Report

Market Cap: €64.2b

Intesa Sanpaolo Valuation

Is ISP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ISP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ISP (€3.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ISP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ISP?

Key metric: As ISP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ISP. This is calculated by dividing ISP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ISP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.3x
Earnings€8.77b
Market Cap€64.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ISP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ISP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.9x
EBS Erste Group Bank
6.7x-2.8%€20.7b
BG BAWAG Group
8.6x5.7%€5.8b
RBI Raiffeisen Bank International
2.6x-6.7%€5.9b
OBS Oberbank
13.8xn/a€5.0b
ISP Intesa Sanpaolo
7.3x0.2%€64.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ISP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (7.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ISP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ISP 7.3xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies47PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ISP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ISP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ISP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.3x
Fair PE Ratio6.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ISP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ISP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.61
€4.57
+26.6%
7.4%€5.00€3.50n/a20
Nov ’25€4.04
€4.49
+11.0%
6.8%€4.90€3.50n/a20
Oct ’25€3.81
€4.38
+14.9%
7.9%€4.80€3.50n/a21
Sep ’25€3.77
€4.35
+15.4%
7.9%€4.80€3.50n/a21
Aug ’25€3.66
€4.32
+17.9%
7.9%€4.74€3.40n/a21
Jul ’25€3.58
€4.13
+15.7%
7.7%€4.70€3.40n/a20
Jun ’25€3.64
€4.10
+12.7%
7.0%€4.62€3.40n/a20
May ’25€3.57
€3.80
+6.4%
10.7%€4.42€3.00n/a21
Apr ’25€3.38
€3.72
+9.9%
9.6%€4.39€3.00n/a21
Mar ’25€3.00
€3.66
+22.0%
8.4%€4.05€3.00n/a22
Feb ’25€2.80
€3.56
+27.0%
7.9%€3.90€3.00n/a21
Jan ’25€2.64
€3.54
+33.9%
9.0%€4.00€3.00n/a21
Dec ’24€2.66
€3.54
+33.1%
9.0%€4.00€3.00n/a21
Nov ’24€2.49
€3.44
+38.1%
9.0%€4.00€2.80€4.0421
Oct ’24€2.45
€3.44
+40.3%
9.3%€4.00€2.80€3.8121
Sep ’24€2.46
€3.34
+36.1%
9.9%€4.00€2.70€3.7723
Aug ’24€2.64
€3.29
+24.8%
9.7%€3.75€2.70€3.6622
Jul ’24€2.41
€3.19
+32.3%
8.5%€3.70€2.70€3.5822
Jun ’24€2.19
€3.16
+44.6%
9.6%€3.70€2.56€3.6422
May ’24€2.45
€3.02
+23.0%
10.5%€3.55€2.40€3.5722
Apr ’24€2.38
€2.99
+25.9%
10.2%€3.55€2.40€3.3822
Mar ’24€2.54
€3.00
+18.1%
10.3%€3.55€2.40€3.0023
Feb ’24€2.46
€2.79
+13.5%
8.7%€3.37€2.40€2.8023
Jan ’24€2.10
€2.73
+30.1%
10.4%€3.37€2.25€2.6422
Dec ’23€2.09
€2.72
+30.3%
11.1%€3.37€2.20€2.6622
Nov ’23€1.94
€2.49
+28.3%
17.0%€3.37€1.22€2.4923

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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