Harley-Davidson, Inc.

WBAG:HOG Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.0b

Harley-Davidson Valuation

Is HOG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HOG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HOG (€30.87) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€29.01)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HOG?

Key metric: As HOG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HOG. This is calculated by dividing HOG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HOG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7x
EarningsUS$598.06m
Market CapUS$4.19b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HOG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HOG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.4x
603529 AIMA Technology Group
17.4x18.3%CN¥32.6b
689009 Ninebot
28.7x27.6%CN¥34.1b
1585 Yadea Group Holdings
15.6x16.0%HK$41.7b
603766 Loncin Motor
24x22.6%CN¥16.6b
HOG Harley-Davidson
7x2.5%€4.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HOG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HOG 7.0xIndustry Avg. 14.4xNo. of Companies17PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HOG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HOG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HOG's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HOG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€30.87
€35.30
+14.4%
8.1%€37.54€29.57n/a9
Nov ’25€29.34
€35.30
+20.3%
7.8%€36.99€29.13n/a9
Oct ’25€34.27
€38.09
+11.2%
11.2%€45.02€30.16n/a8
Sep ’25€33.90
€37.58
+10.9%
11.7%€44.68€29.93n/a8
Aug ’25€33.67
€39.15
+16.3%
10.7%€46.34€33.36n/a8
Jul ’25€30.81
€39.28
+27.5%
12.3%€47.20€31.47n/a9
Jun ’25€32.80
€39.71
+21.1%
11.5%€47.47€33.51n/a9
May ’25€32.40
€40.57
+25.2%
11.1%€47.78€33.72n/a10
Apr ’25€40.66
€40.63
-0.06%
11.8%€50.78€34.16n/a10
Mar ’25€33.08
€39.75
+20.2%
10.0%€46.10€34.11n/a9
Feb ’25€30.33
€37.67
+24.2%
14.0%€46.00€26.68n/a9
Jan ’25€33.68
€36.93
+9.7%
13.8%€45.72€26.52n/a9
Dec ’24€28.16
€36.45
+29.4%
16.8%€46.80€27.14n/a9
Nov ’24€25.90
€39.09
+50.9%
10.8%€47.10€31.08€29.349
Oct ’24€31.62
€43.12
+36.4%
12.4%€51.25€32.61€34.279
Sep ’24€31.49
€42.59
+35.3%
10.2%€50.02€36.38€33.909
Aug ’24€35.21
€42.59
+21.0%
10.2%€50.02€36.38€33.679
Jul ’24€32.23
€41.52
+28.8%
13.2%€51.89€32.77€30.819
Jun ’24€29.34
€43.56
+48.5%
14.0%€52.52€34.09€32.809
May ’24€32.66
€44.30
+35.6%
11.5%€51.73€35.39€32.408
Apr ’24€34.86
€48.33
+38.6%
10.0%€59.96€43.36€40.669
Mar ’24€44.58
€48.82
+9.5%
12.7%€61.44€36.86€33.0810
Feb ’24€41.74
€44.34
+6.2%
12.3%€55.19€35.88€30.3310
Jan ’24€38.37
€45.04
+17.4%
12.4%€56.62€36.80€33.6811
Dec ’23€45.07
€45.10
+0.06%
13.3%€57.68€37.49€28.1611
Nov ’23€44.50
€46.66
+4.9%
14.5%€60.73€40.49€25.9010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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