Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

BASE:AAP Stock Report

Market Cap: AR$5.2t

Advance Auto Parts Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Advance Auto Parts is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 26.1% and 1.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 25.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.8% in 3 years.

Key information

26.1%

Earnings growth rate

25.55%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth14.1%
Revenue growth rate1.8%
Future return on equity9.76%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated03 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

BASE:AAP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20288,98328410170110
12/31/20278,78824023751423
12/31/20268,57416410547023
4/25/20268,63268-17591N/A
1/3/20268,60168-298-46N/A
10/4/20258,624-572-401-191N/A
7/12/20258,737-596-298-109N/A
4/19/20258,905-580-251-74N/A
12/28/20249,094-587-9685N/A
10/5/20249,112-12235417N/A
7/13/20249,183-61375543N/A
4/20/20248,563-61491673N/A
12/30/20239,209-3061287N/A
10/7/20239,6688316282N/A
7/15/202310,092273-99261N/A
4/22/202311,1983738409N/A
12/31/20229,149361336737N/A
10/8/202211,078468238670N/A
7/16/202211,058522273645N/A
4/23/202211,042570394727N/A
1/1/202210,9985978171,107N/A
10/9/202110,9666468191,085N/A
7/17/202110,8876241,0411,298N/A
4/24/202110,7396351,0331,289N/A
1/2/202110,106493702970N/A
10/3/20209,854477472968N/A
7/11/20209,624453322823N/A
4/18/20209,455388N/A673N/A
12/28/20199,709487N/A867N/A
10/5/20199,701444N/A838N/A
7/13/20199,664437N/A859N/A
4/20/20199,659430N/A862N/A
12/29/20189,581424N/A811N/A
10/6/20189,512555N/A881N/A
7/14/20189,420535N/A777N/A
4/21/20189,357504N/A720N/A
12/30/20179,374476N/A601N/A
10/7/20179,420353N/A497N/A
7/15/20179,486371N/A582N/A
4/22/20179,479409N/A470N/A
12/31/20169,568460N/A523N/A
10/8/20169,518452N/A597N/A
7/16/20169,565458N/A567N/A
4/23/20169,679483N/A676N/A
1/2/20169,737473N/A703N/A
10/10/20159,941501N/A689N/A
7/18/20159,935503N/A719N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAP's forecast earnings growth (26.1% per year) is above the savings rate (8.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AAP's earnings (26.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the AR market (33.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AAP's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AAP's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the AR market (13.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AAP's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AAP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/12 18:23
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/12 00:00
Earnings2026/04/25
Annual Earnings2026/01/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is covered by 39 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Craig KennisonBaird
Alan RifkinBarclays