Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC (ADX:ADNOCDIST) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

As you might know, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC (ADX:ADNOCDIST) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC reported د.إ8.5b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of د.إ0.051 beat expectations, being 3.6% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be د.إ35.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.4% to د.إ0.21. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of د.إ36.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of د.إ0.20 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC

The consensus price target was unchanged at د.إ4.12, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at د.إ4.55 and the most bearish at د.إ3.30 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at د.إ4.12, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.