Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On Emaar Development PJSC (DFM:EMAARDEV)

The analysts covering Emaar Development PJSC (DFM:EMAARDEV) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well. At د.إ8.50, shares are up 4.3% in the past 7 days. We'd be curious to see if the downgrade is enough to reverse investor sentiment on the business.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Emaar Development PJSC's seven analysts is for revenues of د.إ17b in 2024, which would reflect a solid 15% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of د.إ20b in 2024. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Emaar Development PJSC, noting the substantial drop in revenue estimates in this update.

See our latest analysis for Emaar Development PJSC

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Emaar Development PJSC's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Emaar Development PJSC's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 32% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% per year. Not only are Emaar Development PJSC's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They're also forecasting more rapid revenue growth than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Emaar Development PJSC after today.

Want to learn more? We have estimates for Emaar Development PJSC from its seven analysts out until 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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