Fertiglobe Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of FERTIGLB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FERTIGLB (AED2.54) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (AED2.89)

Is FERTIGLB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FERTIGLB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FERTIGLB (AED2.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (AED2.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FERTIGLB is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FERTIGLB?

Key metric: As FERTIGLB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FERTIGLB. This is calculated by dividing FERTIGLB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FERTIGLB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	26.7x
Earnings	US$214.70m
Market Cap	US$5.74b

FERTIGLB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.5x
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FERTIGLB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FERTIGLB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.1x
BOROUGE Borouge	17.2x	5.7%	د.إ74.8b
EMSTEEL Emsteel Building Materials PJSC	28.4x	n/a	د.إ8.7b
ICL ICL Group	14.4x	15.5%	US$5.7b
FMC FMC	4.5x	-18.3%	US$6.8b
FERTIGLB Fertiglobe	26.7x	15.7%	د.إ21.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FERTIGLB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FERTIGLB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Chemicals Industry?

25 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

25 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FERTIGLB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the Asian Chemicals industry average (22.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FERTIGLB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FERTIGLB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	26.7x
Fair PE Ratio	22.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FERTIGLB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FERTIGLB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	د.إ2.54	د.إ3.07 +20.7%	10.5%	د.إ3.45	د.إ2.60	n/a	10
Nov ’25	د.إ2.72	د.إ3.04 +11.8%	10.8%	د.إ3.45	د.إ2.60	n/a	9
Oct ’25	د.إ2.60	د.إ3.06 +17.8%	9.9%	د.إ3.45	د.إ2.60	n/a	9
Sep ’25	د.إ2.61	د.إ3.02 +15.5%	10.6%	د.إ3.45	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
Aug ’25	د.إ2.45	د.إ3.08 +25.6%	8.7%	د.إ3.45	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
Jul ’25	د.إ2.42	د.إ3.14 +29.6%	8.7%	د.إ3.50	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
Jun ’25	د.إ2.42	د.إ3.18 +31.3%	8.8%	د.إ3.50	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
May ’25	د.إ2.80	د.إ3.26 +16.3%	8.2%	د.إ3.51	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
Apr ’25	د.إ2.82	د.إ3.31 +17.4%	10.2%	د.إ4.00	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
Mar ’25	د.إ2.58	د.إ3.37 +30.4%	10.9%	د.إ4.00	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
Feb ’25	د.إ2.75	د.إ3.47 +26.1%	10.3%	د.إ4.00	د.إ2.59	n/a	10
Jan ’25	د.إ2.97	د.إ3.66 +23.4%	6.8%	د.إ4.00	د.إ3.30	n/a	9
Dec ’24	د.إ3.12	د.إ3.71 +18.9%	9.2%	د.إ4.35	د.إ3.05	n/a	10
Nov ’24	د.إ3.20	د.إ3.78 +18.1%	10.9%	د.إ4.35	د.إ2.85	د.إ2.72	10
Oct ’24	د.إ3.49	د.إ3.83 +9.9%	8.0%	د.إ4.35	د.إ3.36	د.إ2.60	10
Sep ’24	د.إ3.43	د.إ3.83 +11.5%	7.6%	د.إ4.25	د.إ3.36	د.إ2.61	10
Aug ’24	د.إ3.58	د.إ3.79 +5.8%	8.6%	د.إ4.25	د.إ3.28	د.إ2.45	9
Jul ’24	د.إ3.32	د.إ3.88 +16.9%	10.9%	د.إ4.50	د.إ3.28	د.إ2.42	9
Jun ’24	د.إ3.26	د.إ3.89 +19.4%	10.8%	د.إ4.50	د.إ3.28	د.إ2.42	9
May ’24	د.إ3.76	د.إ4.29 +14.0%	21.4%	د.إ6.45	د.إ3.15	د.إ2.80	9
Apr ’24	د.إ4.00	د.إ4.42 +10.4%	18.7%	د.إ6.45	د.إ3.15	د.إ2.82	9
Mar ’24	د.إ3.94	د.إ4.39 +11.4%	20.4%	د.إ6.45	د.إ2.80	د.إ2.58	9
Feb ’24	د.إ4.05	د.إ5.29 +30.7%	11.2%	د.إ6.45	د.إ4.50	د.إ2.75	9
Jan ’24	د.إ4.23	د.إ5.48 +29.6%	11.2%	د.إ6.45	د.إ4.50	د.إ2.97	9
Dec ’23	د.إ4.61	د.إ5.63 +22.1%	9.6%	د.إ6.45	د.إ4.95	د.إ3.12	8
Nov ’23	د.إ5.05	د.إ5.71 +13.1%	9.1%	د.إ6.45	د.إ5.10	د.إ3.20	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.