Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC (ADX:ALPHADHABI) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC's (ADX:ALPHADHABI) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United Arab Emirates, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 8x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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How Is Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC's Growth Trending?

Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 20% decrease to the company's bottom line. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 11% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 1.2% per year as estimated by the only analyst watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 8.3% per annum, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Alpha Dhabi Holding PJSC (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.