Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 01
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.3% to €12.15. The fair value is estimated to be €15.60, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 31% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 28%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.7% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 21
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.6% to €11.70. The fair value is estimated to be €14.77, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 31% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 28%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.7% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 13
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.8% to €11.75. The fair value is estimated to be €14.77, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 31% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 28%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.7% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • May 20
Upcoming dividend of €0.27 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 May 2024. Payment date: 29 May 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 26% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.3%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.3%). Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.29 (vs €0.21 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.29 (up from €0.21 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: €136.0m (down 3.4% from 1Q 2023). Net income: €14.7m (up 40% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 11% (up from 7.5% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 10
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 14% to €11.30. The fair value is estimated to be €14.22, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 35% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 28%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 6.8% per annum over the same time period. Aankondiging • Apr 28
Piovan S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 29, 2024 Piovan S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 29, 2024. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 11
CEO, MD & Director recently sold €178k worth of stock On the 5th of April, Filippo Zuppichin sold around 15k shares on-market at roughly €12.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 4.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Filippo's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 27% After last week's 27% share price gain to €12.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Machinery industry in Italy. Total returns to shareholders of 74% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Mar 21
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.97 (vs €0.68 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: €0.97 (up from €0.68 in FY 2022). Revenue: €570.5m (up 8.0% from FY 2022). Net income: €49.4m (up 43% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 8.7% (up from 6.5% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Mar 04
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (53% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.5% average weekly change). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 03
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 15% to €10.80. The fair value is estimated to be €8.88, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 37% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 28%. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 19
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 12% to €10.05. The fair value is estimated to be €8.29, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 37% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 28%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to €9.92, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 12.9x. Average trailing P/E is 12x in the Machinery industry in Italy. Total returns to shareholders of 125% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Sep 13
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.23 (vs €0.14 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: €0.23 (up from €0.14 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: €149.3m (up 15% from 2Q 2022). Net income: €12.1m (up 68% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 8.1% (up from 5.5% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 29% per year. New Risk • Jul 07
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 5.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.3% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.21 (vs €0.15 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: €0.21 (up from €0.15 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: €141.1m (up 32% from 1Q 2022). Net income: €10.5m (up 34% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 7.3% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 29% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 38% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • May 08
Upcoming dividend of €0.20 per share at 2.0% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 May 2023. Payment date: 17 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 29% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.0%). Reported Earnings • Mar 22
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.68 (vs €0.56 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: €0.68 (up from €0.56 in FY 2021). Revenue: €531.4m (up 87% from FY 2021). Net income: €34.6m (up 22% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 6.5% (down from 10.0% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 38% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.26 (vs €0.079 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.26 (up from €0.079 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: €144.5m (up 118% from 3Q 2021). Net income: €13.7m (up 240% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 9.5% (up from 6.0% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.26 (vs €0.079 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.26 (up from €0.079 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: €144.5m (up 118% from 3Q 2021). Net income: €13.7m (up 240% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 9.5% (up from 6.0% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Sep 09
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.15 (vs €0.18 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.15 (down from €0.18 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: €130.9m (up 65% from 2Q 2021). Net income: €7.20m (down 23% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 5.5% (down from 12% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 17% per year. Buying Opportunity • May 09
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 21%. The fair value is estimated to be €10.39, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 6.7%. Upcoming Dividend • May 02
Upcoming dividend of €0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 May 2022. Payment date: 11 May 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 18% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (4.7%). In line with average of industry peers (1.2%). Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS: €0.56 (vs €0.35 in FY 2020) Full year 2021 results: EPS: €0.56 (up from €0.35 in FY 2020). Revenue: €287.0m (up 28% from FY 2020). Net income: €28.3m (up 61% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 9.9% (up from 7.8% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 04
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 17% share price decline to €8.60, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 17.2x. Average trailing P/E is 18x in the Machinery industry in Italy. Total returns to shareholders of 27% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 14
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 34% share price gain to €11.00, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 22x. Average trailing P/E is 17x in the Machinery industry in Italy. Total returns to shareholders of 48% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.079 (vs €0.072 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a solid third quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €66.9m (up 35% from 3Q 2020). Net income: €4.01m (up 10% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 6.0% (down from 7.4% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has remained flat. Reported Earnings • Sep 09
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.18 (vs €0.092 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €81.3m (up 63% from 2Q 2020). Net income: €9.29m (up 98% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 11% (up from 9.4% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Upcoming Dividend • May 04
Upcoming dividend of €0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 May 2021. Payment date: 12 May 2021. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (3.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.0%). Reported Earnings • Mar 23
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €0.35 (vs €0.37 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €225.2m (down 2.9% from FY 2019). Net income: €17.6m (down 5.7% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 7.8% (down from 8.1% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 18
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €7.51, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 21.2x. Average forward P/E is 21x in the Machinery industry in Italy. Total returns to shareholders of 92% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 13
New 90-day high: €6.16 The company is up 31% from its price of €4.69 on 13 November 2020. The Italian market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Machinery industry, which is up 16% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 06
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €5.73, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 16.2x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 13.8x. This compares to an average P/E of 21x in the Machinery industry in Italy. Total return to shareholders over the past year is a loss of 3.3%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 05
New 90-day high: €5.37 The company is up 13% from its price of €4.77 on 07 October 2020. The Italian market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Machinery industry, which is also up 13% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS €0.074 The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: €50.2m (up 3.8% from 3Q 2019). Net income: €3.64m (up 11% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 7.3% (up from 6.8% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 13
Revenue beats expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.0%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.9%, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Italy. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 19
Upcoming Dividend of €0.11 Per Share Will be paid on the 28th of October to those who are registered shareholders by the 26th of October. The trailing yield of 3.1% is below the top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.7%), but it is higher than industry peers (1.1%). Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 13
New 90-day high: €4.95 The company is up 6.0% from its price of €4.65 on 15 July 2020. The Italian market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Machinery industry, which is up 22% over the same period.